Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation / Gauti B. Eggertsson, Manuel Lancastre, Lawrence H. Summers.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Eggertsson, Gauti B.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Lancastre, Manuel.

Summers, Lawrence H.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w24902.

NBER working paper series no. w24902

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2018.

Summary:

This paper re-examines the relationship between population aging and economic growth. We confirm previous research such as Cutler, Poterba, Sheiner, and Summers (1990) and Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) that show positive correlation between measures of population aging and per-capita output growth. Our contribution is demonstrating that this relationship breaks down when the adjustment of interest rates is inhibited by an effective lower bound on nominal rates as took place during the Great Financial Crisis decade. Indeed, during the "secular stagnation regime" of 2008-2015 that prevailed in a number of countries, aging had a negative impact on living standards, consistent with the secular stagnation hypothesis.

Notes:

Print version record

August 2018.