How Important Are Terms Of Trade Shocks? / Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Martín Uribe.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Uribe, Martín.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w21253.

NBER working paper series no. w21253

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2015.

Summary:

According to conventional wisdom, terms of trade shocks represent a major source of business cycles in emerging and poor countries. This view is largely based on the analysis of calibrated business-cycle models. We argue that the view that emerges from empirical SVAR models is strikingly different. We estimate country-specific SVARs using data from 38 emerging and countries and find that terms-of-trade shocks explain less than 10 percent of movements in aggregate activity. We then build a three-sector open economy model and estimate key structural parameters country by country. We find that at the country level there is a disconnect between the empirical and theoretical models in the importance assigned to terms-of-trade shocks.

Notes:

Print version record

June 2015.