Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles / Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Bordalo, Pedro.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Gennaioli, Nicola.

Shleifer, Andrei.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w22266.

NBER working paper series no. w22266

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2016.

Summary:

We present a model of credit cycles arising from diagnostic expectations - a belief formation mechanism based on Kahneman and Tversky's (1972) representativeness heuristic. In this formulation, when forming their beliefs agents overweight future outcomes that have become more likely in light of incoming data. The model reconciles extrapolation and neglect of risk in a unified framework. Diagnostic expectations are forward looking, and as such are immune to the Lucas critique and nest rational expectations as a special case. In our model of credit cycles, credit spreads are excessively volatile, over-react to news, and are subject to predictable reversals. These dynamics can account for several features of credit cycles and macroeconomic volatility.

Notes:

Print version record

May 2016.