Re-examining the Middle-Income Trap Hypothesis (MITH): What to Reject and What to Revive? / Xuehui Han, Shang-Jin Wei.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Han, Xuehui.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Wei, Shang-Jin.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w23126.

NBER working paper series no. w23126

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Other Title:

Re-examining the Middle-Income Trap Hypothesis

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2017.

Summary:

Do middle-income countries face difficult challenges producing consistent growth? Using transition matrix analysis, we can easily reject any unconditional notion of a "middle-income trap" in the data. However, countries have different fundamentals and policies. Using a nonparametric classification technique, we search for variables that separate fast- and slow-growing countries. For middle-income countries, a relatively large working age population, sex ratio imbalance, macroeconomic stability, and financial development appear to be the key discriminatory variables. We do the same exercise for low-income countries. This framework yields conditions under which countries in the low- and middle-income ranges move forward or backward, or are trapped.

Notes:

Print version record

February 2017.