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Long-run Bulls and Bears / Rui Albuquerque, Martin Eichenbaum, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Sergio Rebelo.

NBER Working papers Available online

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Format:
Book
Author/Creator:
Albuquerque, Rui.
Contributor:
National Bureau of Economic Research.
Eichenbaum, Martin.
Papanikolaou, Dimitris.
Rebelo, Sergio.
Series:
Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w20858.
NBER working paper series no. w20858
Language:
English
Physical Description:
1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
Place of Publication:
Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2015.
Summary:
A central challenge in asset pricing is the weak connection between stock returns and observable economic fundamentals. We provide evidence that this connection is stronger than previously thought. We use a modified version of the Bry-Boschan algorithm to identify long-run swings in the stock market. We call these swings long-run bull and bear episodes. We find that there is a high correlation between stock returns and fundamentals across bull and bear episodes. This correlation is much higher than the analogous time-series correlations. We show that several asset pricing models cannot simultaneously account for the low time-series and high episode correlations.
Notes:
Print version record
January 2015.

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