Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling / Serena Ng, Jonathan H. Wright.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Ng, Serena.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Wright, Jonathan H.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w19469.

NBER working paper series no. w19469

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2013.

Summary:

This paper provides a survey of business cycle facts, updated to take account of recent data. Emphasis is given to the Great Recession which was unlike most other post-war recessions in the US in being driven by deleveraging and financial market factors. We document how recessions with financial market origins are different from those driven by supply or monetary policy shocks. This helps explain why economic models and predictors that work well at some times do poorly at other times. We discuss challenges for forecasters and empirical researchers in light of the updated business cycle facts.

Notes:

Print version record

September 2013.