The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity / Robert J. Barro, José F. Ursúa, Joanna Weng.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Barro, Robert J.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Ursúa, José F.

Weng, Joanna.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w26866.

NBER working paper series no. w26866

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Other Title:

Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020.

Summary:

Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Pandemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for 48 countries imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 40 million, 2.1 percent of world population, implying 150 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. There is also some evidence that higher flu death rates decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills.

Notes:

Print version record

March 2020.