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The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia / Samuel Bazzi, Robert A. Blair, Christopher Blattman, Oeindrila Dube, Matthew Gudgeon, Richard Merton Peck.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Bazzi, Samuel.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w25980.
- NBER working paper series no. w25980
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Other Title:
- Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2019.
- Summary:
- Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted. We examine the two countries with the richest available sub-national data: Colombia and Indonesia. We assemble two decades of fine-grained violence data by type, alongside hundreds of annual risk factors. We predict violence one year ahead with a range of machine learning techniques. Models reliably identify persistent, high-violence hot spots. Violence is not simply autoregressive, as detailed histories of disaggregated violence perform best. Rich socio-economic data also substitute well for these histories. Even with such unusually rich data, however, the models poorly predict new outbreaks or escalations of violence. "Best case" scenarios with panel data fall short of workable early-warning systems.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- June 2019.
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