Early-Stage Business Formation: An Analysis of Applications for Employer Identification Numbers / Kimberly Bayard, Emin Dinlersoz, Timothy Dunne, John Haltiwanger, Javier Miranda, John Stevens.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Bayard, Kimberly.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Dinlersoz, Emin.

Dunne, Timothy.

Haltiwanger, John.

Miranda, Javier.

Stevens, John.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w24364.

NBER working paper series no. w24364

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Other Title:

Early-Stage Business Formation

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2018.

Summary:

This paper reports on the development and analysis of a newly constructed dataset on the early stages of business formation. The data are based on applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) submitted in the United States, known as IRS Form SS-4 filings. The goal of the research is to develop high-frequency indicators of business formation at the national, state, and local levels. The analysis indicates that EIN applications provide forward-looking and very timely information on business formation. The signal of business formation provided by counts of applications is improved by using the characteristics of the applications to model the likelihood that applicants become employer businesses. The results also suggest that EIN applications are related to economic activity at the local level. For example, application activity is higher in counties that experienced higher employment growth since the end of the Great Recession, and application counts grew more rapidly in counties engaged in shale oil and gas extraction. Finally, the paper provides a description of new public-use dataset, the "Business Formation Statistics (BFS)," that contains new data series on business applications and formation. The initial release of the BFS shows that the number of business applications in the 3rd quarter of 2017 that have relatively high likelihood of becoming job creators is still far below pre-Great Recession levels.

Notes:

Print version record

March 2018.