Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism / Kyle Handley, Fariha Kamal, Ryan Monarch.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Handley, Kyle.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Kamal, Fariha.

Monarch, Ryan.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w26611.

NBER working paper series no. w26611

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Other Title:

Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020.

Summary:

We examine the impacts of the 2018-2019 U.S. import tariff increases on U.S. export growth through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we identify firms that eventually faced tariff increases. They accounted for 84% of all exports and represented 65% of manufacturing employment. For the average affected firm, the implied cost is $900 per worker in new duties. We construct product-level measures of exporters' exposure to import tariff increases and estimate the impact on U.S. export growth. The most exposed products had relatively lower export growth in 2018-2019, with larger effects in 2019. The decline in export growth in 2019Q3, for example, is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on U.S. exports of 2% for the typical product and up to 4% for products with higher than average exposure.

Notes:

Print version record

January 2020.