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Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015 / Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Reinhart, Carmen M.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w21958.
- NBER working paper series no. w21958
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Other Title:
- Global Cycles
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2016.
- Summary:
- Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- February 2016.
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