The Runner-Up Effect / Santosh Anagol, Thomas Fujiwara.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Anagol, Santosh.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Fujiwara, Thomas.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w20261.

NBER working paper series no. w20261

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2014.

Summary:

Exploiting regression discontinuity designs in Brazilian, Indian, and Canadian first-past-the-post elections, we document that second-place candidates are substantially more likely than close third-place candidates to run in, and win, subsequent elections. Since both candidates lost the election and had similar electoral performance, this is the effect of being labeled the runner-up. We explore the potential mechanisms for this runner-up effect, including selection into candidacy, heuristic behavior by political actors, and the runner-up obtaining an advantage from strategic coordination (being more likely to become a focal point). Selection into candidacy is unlikely to explain the effect on winning subsequent elections, and the weight of evidence suggests the effect is driven by strategic coordination. We find no effect of finishing in third-place versus fourth-place.

Notes:

Print version record

June 2014.