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Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations / Drew D. Creal, Jing Cynthia Wu.

NBER Working papers Available online

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Format:
Book
Author/Creator:
Creal, Drew D.
Contributor:
National Bureau of Economic Research.
Wu, Jing Cynthia.
Series:
Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w20594.
NBER working paper series no. w20594
Language:
English
Physical Description:
1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
Place of Publication:
Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2014.
Summary:
We investigate the relationship between uncertainty about monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, and economic fluctuations. We propose a new term structure model where the second moments of macroeconomic variables and yields can have a first-order effect on their dynamics. The data favors a model with two unspanned volatility factors that capture uncertainty about monetary policy and the term premium. Uncertainty contributes negatively to economic activity. Two dimensions of uncertainty react in opposite directions to a shock to the real economy, and the response of inflation to uncertainty shocks vary across different historical episodes.
Notes:
Print version record
October 2014.

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