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Should we Get rid of the Natural Rate Hypothesis? / Olivier J. Blanchard.

NBER Working papers Available online

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Format:
Book
Author/Creator:
Blanchard, Olivier J.
Contributor:
National Bureau of Economic Research.
Series:
Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w24057.
NBER working paper series no. w24057
Language:
English
Physical Description:
1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
Place of Publication:
Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2017.
Summary:
50 years ago, Milton Friedman articulated the natural rate hypothesis. It was composed of two sub-hypotheses: First, the natural rate of unemployment is independent of monetary policy. Second, there is no long-run trade-off between the deviation of unemployment from the natural rate and inflation. Both propositions have been challenged. The paper reviews the arguments and the macro and micro evidence against each. It concludes that, in each case, the evidence is suggestive, but not conclusive. Policy makers should keep the natural rate hypothesis as their null hypothesis, but keep an open mind and put some weight on the alternatives.
Notes:
Print version record
November 2017.

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