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Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle / Mark R. Rosenzweig, Christopher Udry.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Rosenzweig, Mark R.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w19808.
- NBER working paper series no. w19808
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2014.
- Summary:
- We look at the effects of rainfall forecasts and realized rainfall on equilibrium agricultural wages over the course of the agricultural production cycle. We show theoretically that a forecast of good weather can lower wages in the planting stage, by lowering ex ante out-migration, and can exacerbate the negative impact of adverse weather on harvest-stage wages. Using Indian household panel data describing early-season migration and district-level planting- and harvest-stage wages over the period 2005-2010, we find results consistent with the model, indicating that rainfall forecasts improve labor allocations on average but exacerbate wage volatility because they are imperfect.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- January 2014.
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