Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics / Hie Joo Ahn, James D. Hamilton.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Ahn, Hie Joo.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Hamilton, James D.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w22451.

NBER working paper series no. w22451

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2016.

Summary:

This paper develops new estimates of flows into and out of unemployment that allow for unobserved heterogeneity across workers as well as direct effects of unemployment duration on unemployment-exit probabilities. Unlike any previous paper in this literature, we develop a complete dynamic statistical model that allows us to measure the contribution of different shocks to the short-run, medium-run, and long-run variance of unemployment as well as to specific historical episodes. We find that changes in the inflows of newly unemployed are the key driver of economic recessions and identify an increase in permanent job loss as the most important factor.

Notes:

Print version record

July 2016.