Heads or Tails: The Impact of a Coin Toss on Major Life Decisions and Subsequent Happiness / Steven D. Levitt.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Levitt, Steven D.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w22487.

NBER working paper series no. w22487

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Other Title:

Heads or Tails

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2016.

Summary:

Little is known about whether people make good choices when facing important decisions. This paper reports on a large-scale randomized field experiment in which research subjects having difficulty making a decision flipped a coin to help determine their choice. For important decisions (e.g. quitting a job or ending a relationship), those who make a change (regardless of the outcome of the coin toss) report being substantially happier two months and six months later. This correlation, however, need not reflect a causal impact. To assess causality, I use the outcome of a coin toss. Individuals who are told by the coin toss to make a change are much more likely to make a change and are happier six months later than those who were told by the coin to maintain the status quo. The results of this paper suggest that people may be excessively cautious when facing life-changing choices.

Notes:

Print version record

August 2016.