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Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter / Francesco Giavazzi, Felix Iglhaut, Giacomo Lemoli, Gaia Rubera.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Giavazzi, Francesco.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w26825.
- NBER working paper series no. w26825
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Other Title:
- Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2020.
- Summary:
- We study the role of perceived threats from other cultures induced by terrorist attacks and by a criminal event on public discourse and voters' support for radical right parties. We first develop a rule which allocates Twitter users in Germany to electoral districts and then use a machine learning method to compute measures of textual similarity between the tweets they produce and tweets by accounts of the main German parties. Using the dates of the exogenous events we estimate constituency-level shifts in similarity to party language. We find that following these events Twitter text becomes on average more similar to that of the main radical right party, AfD, while the opposite happens for other parties. Regressing estimated shifts in similarity on changes in vote shares between federal elections we find a significant association. Our results point to the role of perceived threats from other cultures on the success of nationalist parties.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- March 2020.
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