Hot Shots: An Analysis of the 'Hot Hand' in NBA Field Goal and Free Throw Shooting / Robert M. Lantis, Erik T. Nesson.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Lantis, Robert M.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Nesson, Erik T.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w26510.

NBER working paper series no. w26510

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Other Title:

Hot Shots

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2019.

Summary:

We investigate the hot hand hypothesis using detailed data on free throws and field goal attempts for the 2004-2005 through 2015-2016 NBA regular seasons. Free throws represent a more controlled setting, allowing a closer examination of the potential physiological mechanisms behind success in repeated motions, while field goal attempts represent the setting most observers have in mind when commenting on a player's repeated shooting success. We examine these two settings together, within the same players in the same games, permitting a more comprehensive analysis of the hot hand. We find a small hot hand effect for free throws, which more than doubles for longer streaks of consecutively made free throws. However, if a player makes a field goal, he is no more or less likely to make his next field goal attempt, and longer streaks of consecutively made field goals reduce the probability that a player makes his next field goal attempt. These results are robust to a large number of controls, including controlling for the characteristics of the previous shots.

Notes:

Print version record

November 2019.