Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions / S. Boragan Aruoba, Francis X. Diebold.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Aruoba, S. Boragan.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Diebold, Francis X.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w15657.

NBER working paper series no. w15657

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Other Title:

Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2010.

Summary:

We sketch a framework for monitoring macroeconomic activity in real-time and push it in new directions. In particular, we focus not only on real activity, which has received most attention to date, but also on inflation and its interaction with real activity. As for the recent recession, we find that (1) it likely ended around July 2009; (2) its most extreme aspects concern a real activity decline that was unusually long but less unusually deep, and an inflation decline that was unusually deep but brief; and (3) its real activity and inflation interactions were strongly positive, consistent with an adverse demand shock.

Notes:

Print version record

January 2010.