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The stock market and aggregate employment / Long Chen, Lu Zhang.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Chen, Long.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w15219.
- NBER working paper series no. w15219
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2009.
- Summary:
- We study the interactions between the stock market and the labor market. When aggregate risk premiums are time-varying, predictive variables for market excess returns should forecast long-horizon growth in the marginal benefit of hiring and thereby long-horizon aggregate employment growth. Consistent with this logic, we document that long-horizon payroll growth and change in unemployment rate are predictable with risk premium proxies. Lagged payroll growth and change in unemployment rate also forecast stock market excess returns.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- August 2009.
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