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Premium for Heightened Uncertainty: Explaining Pre-Announcement Market Returns / Grace Xing Hu, Jun Pan, Jiang Wang, Haoxiang Zhu.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Hu, Grace Xing.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w25817.
- NBER working paper series no. w25817
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Other Title:
- Premium for Heightened Uncertainty
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2019.
- Summary:
- We find large overnight returns, with no abnormal variance, before the release of nonfarm payrolls, ISM, and GDP, similar to the pre-FOMC returns. To explain this common pattern, we propose a two-risk model with the uncertainty about the magnitude of the impending news' market impact as an additional risk, and link the pre-announcement return directly to the accumulation of heightened uncertainty and its later resolution prior to the announcement. We empirically test and verify the model's distinct predictions on the joint intertemporal behavior of return, variance, and particularly VIX--a gauge of impact uncertainty by our model, surrounding macroeconomic announcements.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- May 2019.
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