The Impacts of an East Asia FTA on Foreign Trade in East Asia / Shujiro Urata, Kozo Kiyota.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Urata, Shujiro.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Kiyota, Kozo.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w10173.

NBER working paper series no. w10173

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2003.

Summary:

This paper attempts to examine the impact of an East Asia FTA on trade patterns in East Asia by using a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model. The model used in this analysis is the standard GTAP model and GTAP database developed by Hertel (1997) and his colleagues of Purdue University. Our findings are summarized as follows: First, the impacts of an East Asia FTA on GDP and welfare of member countries are generally positive, while the impacts on non-members are negative. Second and surprisingly, the FTA does not seem to affect much on the patterns of comparative advantage or intra-industry trade. Third, production of the sectors with a comparative advantage increases. Fourth, unexpectedly exports of protected sectors increase, reflecting a shift in incentives from domestic sales to export sales. Finally, an East Asia FTA will promote regionalization in East Asia but it will not necessarily promote regionalization in AFTA.

Notes:

Print version record

December 2003.