The Future of U.S. Economic Growth / John G. Fernald, Charles I. Jones.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Fernald, John G.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Jones, Charles I.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w19830.

NBER working paper series no. w19830

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2014.

Summary:

Modern growth theory suggests that more than 3/4 of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these transition dynamics fade, U.S. economic growth is likely to slow at some point. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies may allow another few decades of rapid growth in world researchers. Finally, and more speculatively, the shape of the idea production function introduces a fundamental uncertainty into the future of growth. For example, the possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future.

Notes:

Print version record

January 2014.