Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast: The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending / Christina D. Romer, David H. Romer.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Romer, Christina D.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Romer, David H.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w13548.

NBER working paper series no. w13548

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Other Title:

Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2007.

Summary:

The hypothesis that decreases in taxes reduce future government spending is often cited as a reason for cutting taxes. However, because taxes change for many reasons, examinations of the relationship between overall measures of taxation and subsequent spending are plagued by problems of reverse causation and omitted variable bias. To deal with these problems, this paper examines the behavior of government expenditures following legislated tax changes that narrative sources suggest are largely uncorrelated with other factors affecting spending. The results provide no support for the hypothesis that tax cuts restrain government spending; indeed, they suggest that tax cuts may actually increase spending. The results also indicate that the main effect of tax cuts on the government budget is to induce subsequent legislated tax increases. Examination of four episodes of major tax cuts reinforces these conclusions.

Notes:

Print version record

October 2007.