Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Iraq and the Philippines / Eli Berman, Michael Callen, Joseph H. Felter, Jacob N. Shapiro.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Berman, Eli.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Callen, Michael.

Felter, Joseph H.

Shapiro, Jacob N.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w15547.

NBER working paper series no. w15547

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2009.

Summary:

Most aid spending by governments seeking to rebuild social and political order is based on an opportunity-cost theory of distracting potential recruits. The logic is that gainfully employed young men are less likely to participate in political violence, implying a positive correlation between unemployment and violence in locations with active insurgencies. We test that prediction in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Philippines, using survey data on unemployment and two newly-available measures of insurgency: (1) attacks against government and allied forces; and (2) violence that kills civilians. Contrary to the opportunity-cost theory, the data emphatically reject a positive correlation between unemployment and attacks against government and allied forces (p<.05%). There is no significant relationship between unemployment and the rate of insurgent attacks that kill civilians. We identify several potential explanations, introducing the notion of insurgent precision to adjudicate between the possibilities that predation on the one hand, and security measures and information costs on the other, account for the negative correlation between unemployment and violence in these three conflicts.

Notes:

Print version record

November 2009.