Why World Exports are so Susceptible to the Economic Crisis --The Prevailing "Export Overshooting" Phenomenon / Bih Jane Liu.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Liu, Bih Jane.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w16837.

NBER working paper series no. w16837

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2011.

Summary:

This paper provides some evidence of the "export overshooting" phenomenon, i.e., the unusually large deviation of exports from their long-run level. We study the export trends of a sample of 37 countries including both OECD and non-OECD countries over the period of 1994-2009. We find that exports overshot their equilibrium value during economic crises and that the tendency to overshoot was a worldwide phenomenon. The bullwhip effect was the driving force behind such a phenomenon. Moreover, the extent of export overshooting was increasing in more recent crisis, which can be attributed to an increase in cross-border vertical specialization over time.

Notes:

Print version record

February 2011.