Individual Subjective Survival Curves / Li Gan, Michael Hurd, Daniel McFadden.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Gan, Li.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Hurd, Michael.

McFadden, Daniel.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w9480.

NBER working paper series no. w9480

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2003.

Summary:

Testing life-cycle models and other economic models of saving and consumption at micro level requires knowledge of individuals' subjective believes of their mortality risk. Previous studies have shown that individual responses on subjective survival probabilities are generally consistent with life tables. However, survey responses suffer serious problems caused by focal responses of zero and one. This paper suggests using a Bayesian update model that accounts for the problems encountered in focal responses. We also propose models that help us to identify how much each individual deviates from life table in her subjective belief. The resulting individual subjective survival curves have considerable variations and are readily applicable in testing economic models that require individual subjective life expectancies.

Notes:

Print version record

February 2003.