Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined / Menzie D. Chinn.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Chinn, Menzie D.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w9521.

NBER working paper series no. w9521

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2003.

Summary:

This paper examines the stability of import and export demand functions for the United States over the 1975q1-2001q2 period. Using the Johansen maximum likelihood approach, an export demand function is readily identified. In contrast, there appears to be a structural break in the import demand function in 1995; specifications incorporating this break pass tests for cointegration, although the price elasticity is not statistically significant. Only when excluding computers and parts from the import series is a stable import demand function detected. The resulting point estimates do not exhibit the income asymmetry typically found in other studies of aggregate U.S. trade flows.

Notes:

Print version record

March 2003.