Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth? / David E. Bloom, David Canning, Günther Fink, Jocelyn E. Finlay.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Bloom, David E.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Canning, David.

Fink, Günther.

Finlay, Jocelyn E.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w13221.

NBER working paper series no. w13221

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2007.

Summary:

Increases in the proportion of the working age population can yield a "demographic dividend" that enhances the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters of an economic growth model with a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980 and investigate whether the inclusion of age structure improves the model's forecasts for the period 1980 to 2000. We find that including age structure improves the forecast, although there is evidence of parameter instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown in the second period. We use the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000 to 2020.

Notes:

Print version record

July 2007.