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The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997 / Michael D. Bordo, Joseph G. Haubrich.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Bordo, Michael D.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w10431.
- NBER working paper series no. w10431
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Other Title:
- The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2004.
- Summary:
- This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, particularly across different monetary regimes. In accord with our proposed theory, regimes with low credibility (high persistence of inflation) tend to have better predictability.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- April 2004.
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