Did Import Substitution Promote Growth in the Late Nineteenth Century? / Douglas A. Irwin.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Irwin, Douglas A.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w8751.

NBER working paper series no. w8751

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2002.

Summary:

The positive correlation between import tariffs and economic growth across countries in the late nineteenth century suggests that tariffs may have played a causal role in promoting growth. This paper seeks to determine if high tariffs stimulated growth by shifting resources out of agriculture and into manufacturing. The most rapidly growing countries were indeed those that reduced the share of employment in agriculture. Tariffs in agricultural exporting (importing) countries may have promoted (retarded) this shift, although two high tariff, high growth, agricultural-exporting outliers (Argentina and Canada) experienced export-oriented growth and did not pursue import substitution policies. This raises the question of whether economic growth led to changes in the structure of employment rather than changes in employment leading to economic growth.

Notes:

Print version record

January 2002.