Arbitrage-Free Bond Pricing with Dynamic Macroeconomic Models / Michael F. Gallmeyer, Burton Hollifield, Francisco Palomino, Stanley E. Zin.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Gallmeyer, Michael F.

Contributor:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Hollifield, Burton.

Palomino, Francisco.

Zin, Stanley E.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w13245.

NBER working paper series no. w13245

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2007.

Summary:

We examine the relationship between monetary-policy-induced changes in short interest rates and yields on long-maturity default-free bonds. The volatility of the long end of the term structure and its relationship with monetary policy are puzzling from the perspective of simple structural macroeconomic models. We explore whether richer models of risk premiums, specifically stochastic volatility models combined with Epstein-Zin recursive utility, can account for such patterns. We study the properties of the yield curve when inflation is an exogenous process and compare this to the yield curve when inflation is endogenous and determined through an interest-rate/Taylor rule. When inflation is exogenous, it is difficult to match the shape of the historical average yield curve. Capturing its upward slope is especially difficult as the nominal pricing kernel with exogenous inflation does not exhibit any negative autocorrelation - a necessary condition for an upward sloping yield curve as shown in Backus and Zin (1994). Endogenizing inflation provides a substantially better fit of the historical yield curve as the Taylor rule provides additional flexibility in introducing negative autocorrelation into the nominal pricing kernel. Additionally, endogenous inflation provides for a flatter term structure of yield volatilities which better fits historical bond data.

Notes:

Print version record

July 2007.