OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 2.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

OECD.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, author, issuing body.

Series:

OECD Economic Outlook Series

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic history.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (231 pages)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Paris : Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2022.

Summary:

The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 2 includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.

Contents:

Intro

Acknowledgements

Editorial Confronting the Crisis

Policies for a stronger recovery

Summing up

1 General assessment of the macroeconomic situation

Introduction

Growth is slowing and financial conditions have tightened

Global growth has lost momentum amidst high inflation

Trade growth held up in the first half of 2022, but recent indicators have weakened

Financial market conditions have tightened significantly

Global growth is projected to weaken further with inflation slowing gradually

Key risks and vulnerabilities

The impact of lower energy imports to Europe from Russia could prove more severe than expected

Monetary policy tightening highlights pre-existing financial vulnerabilities

Rising private sector debt-service burdens and lower bond market liquidity are keys risks in the advanced economies

Financial vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies are exacerbated by external spillovers

Calibrating monetary policy responses will be challenging

Reduced uncertainty and lower commodity prices are upside risks

Policy requirements

Further monetary policy tightening is necessary in most countries

Targeted fiscal policy support is needed

Inflationary pressures and stretched budgets limit the scope for policy support in emerging-market economies

Structural policy efforts need to be enhanced

Bibliography

Annex 1.A. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections

2 Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies

Argentina

Economic activity is stagnating

Fiscal and monetary policies are tightening

Growth is slowing and risks are tilted to the downside

Structural reforms to boost productivity could reduce imbalances

Australia

Inflationary pressures are rising due to global factors and a tight labour market.

Macroeconomic policy is becoming more restrictive

Economic growth will slow after a rapid recovery

Reducing emissions from greenhouse gases remains a priority

Austria

Growth is slowing amidst rising inflation

Fiscal spending partly offsets energy price inflation

Economic growth will be weak

Reforms could make growth stronger and more sustainable

Belgium

The economy has slowed amid a deteriorating global outlook

Public finances are under pressure

Growth will be low but improve gradually

Ensuring fiscal sustainability and energy security is key

Brazil

Activity surprised on the upside in the first half of 2022

Restrictive monetary and fiscal policies are on the way

Economic growth is slowing

An overhaul of the fiscal framework is needed

Bulgaria

Bulgaria faces weaker growth and high inflation

Extensive policy supports have been put in place

A resilient rebound is expected after the near-term slowdown

Structural reform needs are pressing

Canada

Economic activity is cooling

Near-term policy goals are to tame inflation and provide living-cost relief

Inflation will moderate as growth slows

Staying focused on sustainable long-term growth

Chile

Activity has cooled down during 2022

Commitment to the fiscal rule and restrictive monetary policy in 2023-24

After a contraction in 2023, growth will resume in 2024

Policies should aim for higher productivity and a more progressive tax system

China

Disruptions due to pandemic-related lockdowns persist

Monetary and fiscal policy have become more supportive

Activity will recover only slowly

Structural reforms are needed to reinvigorate the economy

Colombia

The economy is cooling down

Fiscal and monetary policy will remain tight

Growth is projected to weaken.

Streamlining the tax and benefit system and supporting the green transition

Costa Rica

Exports have been driving growth amid high inflation

Fiscal prudence and tight monetary policy will continue

Growth will gradually strengthen after slowing in 2023

Pushing ahead with structural reform would increase growth and equity

Croatia

Surging energy prices and uncertainty are stalling the strong rebound

Fiscal and monetary conditions will remain supportive

Rising investment will rekindle growth

Addressing skills shortages and improving the economy's resilience will help sustain growth

Czech Republic

The economy has slowed markedly

A tight macroeconomic policy stance is warranted

High uncertainty will continue to weigh on growth

Strengthening labour supply and accelerating the green transition would support growth

Denmark

The economy has cooled

Fiscal and monetary policies will remain prudent

Strong inflation will dent economic growth

Containing inflationary pressures is a priority

Estonia

The economy is slowing

Balancing adequate support to the vulnerable with the need to tame inflation

The economy is projected to slow amid high inflation and uncertainty

Policies need to maintain incentives for energy savings, strengthen the energy network and facilitate the green transition

Euro area

Disruption of energy supplies and high inflation are weighing on the outlook

Fiscal policy needs to avoid providing stimulus in a time of high inflation

Growth will slow sharply in 2023, gradually resuming afterwards

Supporting long-term resilience and the green transition

Finland

An economic downturn has begun

Fiscal policy is mildly expansionary but will become neutral in 2024

The economy is heading into a short-lived recession.

Further measures are needed to enhance fiscal and environmental sustainability

France

Growth has slowed

Fiscal measures are partly cushioning external shocks

Domestic demand growth is slowing

Supporting more sustainable growth

Germany

Uncertainty and high inflation exert a drag on growth

Fiscal policy is supporting households and firms

The recovery is hampered by the war in Ukraine and high energy prices

Expanding renewables to raise energy security

Greece

Rebounding tourism and fiscal support have driven strong economic growth

Fiscal measures are expected to provide continued support to the economy

High uncertainty and rising prices are projected to moderate growth

Well-designed fiscal measures can address both short- and long-term energy challenges

Hungary

The economy is slowing in face of headwinds

Monetary policy continues to combat inflation

Growth will be restrained by inflation before picking up in 2024

Securing stronger growth

Iceland

Strong exports are driving the economy

The economy will slow considerably

Investing in energy diversification and security is important

India

The strong recovery has slowed

Macroeconomic policies are turning restrictive

The economy will not escape the global slowdown

Progress in financial inclusion and energy security can be further extended

Indonesia

Recent developments provide mixed signals

Fiscal and monetary policies should remain tight

Steady growth is projected to persist

Sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms can boost productivity

Ireland

Rising prices are lowering real household incomes

Windfall tax revenues will boost public finances

Risks to domestic activity are considerable.

Sustainable public finances are needed to deliver on long-term reforms

Israel

Economic activity is robust

Macroeconomic policy is tightening

Growth is set to moderate

Policy support should be temporary and targeted

Italy

Activity is slowing

Monetary policy is tightening, but fiscal policy remains supportive

Growth will pick up only slowly, with risks tilted to the downside

Efficient spending of Next Generation EU funds will be key to support growth

Japan

External pressures are weighing on the domestic demand-driven recovery

Fiscal measures are moderating the impact of external shocks

The economic recovery will continue, but downside risks have risen

Accelerating structural reforms will be critical to boost productivity and wages

Korea

The economy faces headwinds

Macroeconomic policies are tightening

Growth is projected to weaken

Structural challenges call for policy action

Latvia

The economy is slowing due to high inflation and uncertainty

Fiscal policy is tightening

Economic growth will slow while inflation remains high

Investing in energy security and addressing labour shortages

Lithuania

The economy is slowing in face of continued headwinds

Fiscal stimulus is being gradually withdrawn

Growth will remain restrained

Luxembourg

Fiscal policy will remain supportive

Economic growth will slow significantly before gradually recovering

To embed resilience, policy should focus on productivity and investment

Mexico

The outlook for activity is worsening and inflationary pressures remain high

Fiscal policy remains prudent and monetary policy will need to remain restrictive

Growth will be moderate in the near term

Boosting productivity is a key priority

Netherlands

The outlook has darkened.

Support measures and higher public spending will increase the fiscal deficit.

Notes:

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN:

92-64-96461-4