Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2016.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

OCDE, OECD /.

OCDE, OECD, author.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Coal mines and mining.

Coal trade.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (141 pages)

Edition:

2016th ed.

Place of Publication:

Paris : Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development, 2016.

Summary:

Analysis on coal often tends to be one-sided. But to truly understand the important role that coal plays, for better or worse, in the global energy system, it is critical that we examine both sides of the coin. This means understanding the implications of climate agreements on the future for coal while at the same time coming to terms with what coal is doing - and will continue to do - for energy security and energy access in developing and emerging economies. This means taking a close look at those emerging economies, specifically in South and Southeast Asia. For example, given China's dominance in coal markets, the main problem for the coal industry is adjusting to how Chinese demand and imports will evolve in the future. In India, already the second largest coal consumer in the world, coal use is expected to grow. Will this trigger imports? Viet Nam, a net exporter until 2014, is building coal power plants at a fast pace. How much coal will they need to import? Where will that coal come from?Meanwhile, despite an increase in the price of natural gas price in the United States, coal consumption continues to drop. Is this decline inevitable? The last coal plants closed in Belgium and Scotland in 2016 while other European nations have announced the end of coal generation. Is coal going to disappear forever from Europe? At the same time, banks and funds are turning away from coal financing. Will this bring a halt to construction of new coal power plants? The Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2016 addresses these questions and more, providing insight into the drivers of coal demand, supply and trade through 2021.

Contents:

MEDIUM-TERM COAL MARKET REPORT 2016

FOREWORD

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Is the glass half full or half empty?

A two-track coal world

A relieved industry

Coal is still a Chinese tale

Volatility and uncertainty for major importers

Quo vadis, coal?

1. RECENT TRENDS IN DEMAND AND SUPPLY

Key findings

Demand

OECD demand trends

OECD non-member demand trends

Regional focus: India

Supply

OECD supply trends

Regional focus: Australia

OECD non-member supply trends

2. RECENT TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADING

The international coal market

International thermal coal trade

International met coal trade

Regional analysis

Exporters

Importers

Prices

Seaborne thermal coal prices and regional arbitrage

Seaborne met coal prices

Coal forward prices

Coal derivatives

Coal supply costs

Development of input factor prices

Currency exchange rates

Dry bulk shipping market

Development of coal supply costs

References

3. MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY

Methodology

Assumptions

Global coal demand forecast

OECD coal demand forecast, 2016-21

OECD non-member coal demand forecast, 2016-21

Global coal supply forecast

Thermal coal and lignite supply forecast, 2016-21

Met coal supply forecast, 2016-21

4. MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST OF SEABORNE COAL TRADE

Methodology and assumptions

Seaborne coal trade forecast

Seaborne thermal coal trade forecast, 2016-21

Seaborne met coal trade forecast, 2016-21

5. EXPORT CAPACITY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

Investment in export mining capacity

Investment in export infrastructure capacity

Australia

Colombia

South Africa

Mozambique

Russia.

Indonesia

Canada

United States

Poland

ANNEX

GLOSSARY

Regional and country groupings

List of acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure.

Notes:

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN:

92-64-26794-8

OCLC:

1024286628