Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2023 - Update : Resilience Under Uncertainty / OECD.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, author, issuing body.

Series:

Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India Series

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic forecasting--Southeast Asia.

Economic forecasting.

Economic forecasting--India.

Economic forecasting--China.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (37 pages)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Paris : OECD Publishing, 2023.

Summary:

The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a regular publication on regional economic growth and development in Emerging Asia. It focuses on the economic conditions of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. It also addresses relevant economic issues in China and India to fully reflect developments in the region. This Update presents the region's economic outlook, depicting rapidly changing trends and macroeconomic challenges amidst external headwinds.

Contents:

Intro

Executive summary

Growth in Emerging Asia needs to cope with external headwinds

Regional and domestic demand supports growth

Financial markets are relatively stable but monetary policy manoeuvres must be conducted carefully

Labour markets show signs of recovery

Introduction

Overview and main findings

Table 1. Real GDP Growth in ASEAN, China and India, 2022-24 (%)

Recent developments and near-term outlook

ASEAN-5

Brunei Darussalam and Singapore

CLM countries

China and India

Export growth contracted owing to a decline in demand for exported goods

Figure 1. Exports in selected Emerging Asian economies, Q1 2022-Q2 2023 (% of GDP)

Impact of global uncertainty on countries will depend on their degree of export dependency

Figure 2. Evolution of selected primary commodity prices, January 2017 to June 2023

Regional demand helped sustain exports

Figure 3. Emerging Asia's exports to and imports from regional and global destinations (% of total)

Figure 4. ASEAN exports to selected Asian and global destinations (% of total)

Growth in services exports is expanding and has overtaken growth in goods exports

Figure 5. Export growth in goods vs. services in selected Emerging Asian countries (%)

FDI inflows will boost the region's export sector

Monetary policies will remain tight amid high inflation and upside risks

Table 2. Consumer price inflation and core inflation in the OECD and Emerging Asia, July 2023

Figure 6. Consumer Price Index and core inflation in selected Emerging Asian countries, January 2021 to July 2023 (%)

Financial markets in the region are relatively stable, but reactions to stress vary across countries

Figure 7. Benchmark stock market indices of selected Emerging Asian economies, January 2022 to August 2023.

Regional bond markets outperform equity markets

Figure 8. Net portfolio equity and debt flows in selected ASEAN economies, January to June 2023 (USD billion)

Portfolio outflows in some economies will weaken local currencies

Figure 9. 1-year government bond yield spread and foreign exchange rates in selected Emerging Asian economies, January 2022 to August 2023

Labour markets in most Emerging Asian economies show signs of recovery

Figure 10. Unemployment rate in selected Emerging Asian economies, Q2 2019 to Q2 2023 (%)

Global factors pose the greatest challenges to the growth outlook for Emerging Asia

References

Acknowledgements.

Notes:

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

ISBN:

92-64-69839-6