OECD economic outlook. 98, November 2015 / OECD.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, author.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic forecasting.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (315 pages)

Edition:

2nd ed.

Place of Publication:

Paris : OECD, [2015]

Summary:

This OECD Economic Outlook analyses the current economic situation and examines the economic policies required to foster a sustained recovery in member countries. The present issue covers the outlook to end 2017 for both OECD countries and selected non OECD economies. Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique tool to keep abreast of world economic developments.

Contents:

Intro

Table of contents

Summary of projections

Editorial: Trade Winds Blowing No Good?

Chapter 1. General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation

Introduction

The outlook

Figure 1.1. Global GDP growth is set to recover slowly

Figure 1.2. Global import volume growth has slowed this year

Table 1.1. The global recovery will gain momentum only slowly

Figure 1.3. Financial conditions in advanced economies have become less supportive

Figure 1.4. GDP growth projections for the major economies

Figure 1.5. Inflation is likely to remain weak

Table 1.2. OECD labour market conditions will improve slowly

Figure 1.6. Labour market outcomes should improve gradually in the major OECD economies

Box 1.1. The labour market and fiscal impact of the European refugee surge

The number of refugees into Europe is rising but still small compared with total net migration

Main issues and risks for economic prospects

Figure 1.7. Global trade growth is unusually weak this year

Figure 1.8. Non-OECD import volume growth has fallen sharply this year

Figure 1.9. Significant changes are occurring in Chinese trade flows

Figure 1.10. Chinese merchandise export growth to selected partner countries

Figure 1.11. Trade linkages with China in 2014

Table 1.3. World trade will strengthen gradually

Figure 1.12. Rebalancing is continuing in China

Box 1.2. The global impact of weaker demand growth in China

GDP growth impact of an adverse two-year domestic demand shock in China

Figure 1.13. Financial conditions in emerging market economies have tightened

Box 1.3. Rising US policy interest rates and spillovers to emerging market economies

Portfolio capital flows to EMEs during past episodes of US monetary policy tightening

Measures of risk aversion.

Financial market conditions during past episodes of US monetary policy tightening

Figure 1.14. EMEs' external vulnerabilities increased due to exchange rate depreciations

Figure 1.15. Credit has increased substantially in some EMEs

Box 1.4. Growth shortfalls in the euro area and Japan

Estimated impact on GDP growth in 2015 of changes in forces acting since June 2014

Figure 1.16. Conditions in the banking sector across euro area countries continue to differ

Figure 1.17. Little progress with deleveraging in the euro area and Japan

Box 1.5. Revisions to potential output growth

Revision to potential output growth for 2016

Policy requirements

Table 1.4. Fiscal positions will continue to improve

Box 1.6. The impact of an increase in public investment in OECD economies

First-year GDP effects of a government investment stimulus in OECD economies

The impact of a government investment stimulus on budget deficits and government debt

Figure 1.18. The cyclical component of budget deficits

Bibliography

Annex 1.1. Policy and other Assumptions Underlying the Projections

Annex 1.2. Indicators of Potential Financial Vulnerabilities

Table 1.A2.1. Indicators of potential financial vulnerabilities

Table 1.A2.2. Financial-accounts-related risk factors to financial stability

Chapter 2. Cool Policy: Climate Change Mitigation Supporting Growth

Summary

Figure 2.1. Level of additional risk due to climate change

Box 2.1. What's needed: Key policy measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Why act? What's the problem with global warming?

Action is needed

Box 2.2. Two tragedies

Box 2.3. A worldwide cap-and-trade system? Seemingly impracticable, but useful as a reference point for other options

Figure 2.2. The carbon tax in OECD and seven partner countries.

Figure 2.3. Sales of petroleum fuels subject to British Columbia's carbon tax

Financial markets and climate change

Insurance: coping with climate change - and reducing it?

Figure 2.4. Economic losses from climatological, meteorological and hydrological disasters

Greenhouse gas mitigation and the short-term outlook

Box 2.4. Integrated policies reduced Swedish residential greenhouse gas emissions by 80%

Heat production costs in single-family houses with different heating alternatives

Climate change policy and fiscal sustainability

Figure 2.5. Economy-wide effective tax rates on CO2 from energy

Conclusion

Chapter 3. Developments in Individual OECD Countries and Selected Non-Member Economies

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Brazil

Canada

Chile

China

Colombia

Costa Rica

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Euro area

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Iceland

India

Indonesia

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Korea

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Russia

Slovak Republic

Slovenia

South Africa

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

United Kingdom

United States

Statistical Annex

Annex Tables

Annex Table 1. Real GDP

Annex Table 2. Nominal GDP

Annex Table 3. Real private consumption expenditure

Annex Table 4. Real public consumption expenditure

Annex Table 5. Real total gross fixed capital formation

Annex Table 6. Real gross private non-residential fixed capital formation

Annex Table 7. Real gross residential fixed capital formation

Annex Table 8. Real total domestic demand

Annex Table 9. Foreign balance contributions to changes in real GDP

Annex Table 10. Output gaps

Annex Table 11. Compensation per employee.

Annex Table 12. Labour productivity

Annex Table 13. Unemployment rates: national definitions

Annex Table 14. Harmonised unemployment rates

Annex Table 15. Labour force, employment and unemployment

Annex Table 16. GDP deflators

Annex Table 17. Private consumption deflators

Annex Table 18. Consumer price indices

Annex Table 19. Oil and other primary commodity markets

Annex Table 20. Employment and labour force

Annex Table 21. Potential GDP and productive capital stock

Annex Table 22. Structural unemployment and unit labour costs

Annex Table 23. Household saving rates

Annex Table 24. Gross national saving

Annex Table 25. General government total outlays

Annex Table 26. General government total tax and non-tax receipts

Annex Table 27. General government financial balances

Annex Table 28. General government cyclically adjusted balances

Annex Table 29. General government underlying balances

Annex Table 30. General government underlying primary balances

Annex Table 31. General government net debt interest payments

Annex Table 32. General government gross financial liabilities

Annex Table 33. General government net financial liabilities

Annex Table 34. Maastricht definition of general government gross public debt

Annex Table 35. Short-term interest rates

Annex Table 36. Long-term interest rates

Annex Table 37. Nominal exchange rates (vis-à-vis the US dollar)

Annex Table 38. Effective exchange rates

Annex Table 39. Export volumes of goods and services

Annex Table 40. Import volumes of goods and services

Annex Table 41. Export prices of goods and services

Annex Table 42. Import prices of goods and services

Annex Table 43. Indicators of competitiveness based on relative consumer prices

Annex Table 44. Indicators of competitiveness based on relative unit labour costs.

Annex Table 45. Export performance for total goods and services

Annex Table 46. Shares in world exports and imports

Annex Table 47. Geographical structure of world trade growth

Annex Table 48. Trade balances for goods and services

Annex Table 49. Balance of primary income

Annex Table 50. Balance of secondary income

Annex Table 51. Current account balances

Annex Table 52. Current account balances as a percentage of GDP

Annex Table 53. Structure of current account balances of major world regions

Annex Table 54. Export market growth in goods and services

Annex Table 55. Import penetration

Annex Table 56. Quarterly demand and output projections

Annex Table 57. Quarterly price, cost and unemployment projections

Annex Table 58. Contributions to changes in real GDP in OECD countries

Annex Table 59. Household wealth and indebtedness

Annex Table 60. House prices

Annex Table 61. House price ratios.

Notes:

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

92-64-22031-3

OCLC:

1024279990