ITF transport outlook 2017 / OECD.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

International Transport Forum, author.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, author.

Contributor:

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, author.

Series:

ITF Transport Outlook

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Transportation.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (224 pages).

Edition:

2017th ed.

Place of Publication:

Paris : OECD, [2017]

Summary:

The ITF Transport Outlook provides an overview of recent trends and near-term prospects for the transport sector at a global level, as well as long-term prospects for transport demand to 2050, for freight (maritime, air and surface), passenger transport (car, rail and air) and CO2 emissions.

Contents:

Intro

Editorial

Foreword

Acknowledgements

Table of contents

Executive summary

Background

Findings

Policy insights

The 2016 Paris climate agreement must be translated into concrete actions for the transport sector.

Policy will need to embrace and respond to disruptive innovation in transport.

Reducing CO2 from urban mobility needs more than better vehicle and fuel technology.

Targeted land-use policies can reduce the transport infrastructure needed to provide more equitable access in cities.

Governments need to develop planning tools to adapt to uncertainties created by changing patterns of consumption, production and distribution.

Part I. Global outlook for transport

Chapter 1. The transport sector today

Box 1.1. United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

Table 1.1. Transport related targets in the UN Sustainable Development Goals

Transport and the economic environment

Gross Domestic Product

Table 1.2. GDP growth, percentage change over previous year

Table 1.3. Annual GDP growth

International trade

Table 1.4. World merchandise trade, 2012-17

Figure 1.1. Monthly index of world trade, advanced and emerging economies

Figure 1.2. Elasticity of global trade to GDP

Oil prices

Figure 1.3. Primary commodity price indices, 2011-17

Freight

Maritime freight

Figure 1.4. World seaborne trade

Figure 1.5. World seaborne trade by type of cargo and country group

Figure 1.6. World container throughput

Air freight

Figure 1.7. World air freight traffic 2008-15

Surface freight

Figure 1.8. Surface freight volumes by mode of transport

Passenger transport

Car use

Figure 1.9. Passenger-kilometres by private car

Figure 1.10. Motorisation rates in selected developing countries

Box 1.2. Towards zero deaths and serious injuries.

Figure 1.11. Road fatalities per 1 000 inhabitants

Rail passenger traffic

Figure 1.12. Rail passenger traffic

Air passenger transport

Figure 1.13. World air passenger traffic, international and domestic

Figure 1.14. Top 10 busiest airports in 2015 and evolution from 2000

CO2 emissions from transport

Figure 1.15. CO2 emissions by sector

Spending on inland transport infrastructure

Figure 1.16. Investment in inland transport infrastructure by region 1998-2014

Figure 1.17. Volume of investment in inland transport infrastructure by region 1995-2014

Figure 1.18. Distribution of infrastructure investment across rail, road and inland waterways

Figure 1.19. Share of public road maintenance in total road expenditure

References

Chapter 2. Transport demand and CO2 emissions to 2050

Figure 2.1. Demand for passenger transport by mode

Domestic non-urban transport

Table 2.1. Growth in GDP and domestic transport demand

Figure 2.2. Domestic aviation by region

Figure 2.3. Passenger car ownership by region

Figure 2.4. Length of high-speed rail network in selected countries or regions

Urban mobility

Table 2.2. Urban transport by mode compared to economic growth

Figure 2.5. Urban transport demand by mode

International aviation

Figure 2.6. International air transport demand by region

Freight transport

Figure 2.7. Freight transport demand by mode

Table 2.3. Annual growth rate for freight transport demand, compared to GDP

Maritime transport

Figure 2.8. Surface freight tonne-kilometres by region

Table 2.4. Freight intensity as a function of GDP per capita

Figure 2.9. Road freight activity by sector

CO2 emissions

Table 2.5. Per capita emissions from transport

Figure 2.10. CO2 emissions by sector.

Box 2.1. ITF's Decarbonising Transport project

Figure 2.11. CO2 emissions by sector and scenario

Annex 2.A. The ITF modelling framework

Figure 2.A1. The ITF modelling framework

Part II. Sectoral outlook

Chapter 3. International freight

Underlying trade projections

Table 3.1. Comparison of the alternative trade scenarios for the 2015-50 period

Figure 3.1. Value of trade by region

Figure 3.2. Value of trade by commodity

International freight transport to 2050

Figure 3.3. Freight transport demand in alternative trade elasticity scenarios

Figure 3.4. International freight volume by mode

Figure 3.5. International freight and related CO2 emissions by corridor

CO2 emissions from international freight

Quantifying emissions

Table 3.2. Alternative scenarios for CO2 emissions

Long-term outlook for CO2 emissions

Figure 3.6. CO2 emissions from international freight by mode

Figure 3.7. CO2 emissions from maritime transport by commodity

Figure 3.8. Road freight CO2 intensity by region in the 4 degree scenario of the IEA Mobility Model

Alternative pathways

Figure 3.9. The impact of policy measures on emissions

Impact of trade liberalisation

Figure 3.10. Impact of trade liberalisation on tonne-kilometres and CO2 emissions

Challenges in container shipping

Container port capacity

Figure 3.11. Expansion plans compared with traffic projections by sea area

Table 3.3. Container traffic by sea area in 2030 and 2050 and planned capacity 2030

The global container shipping network

Figure 3.12. Ship size development of various ship types 1996-2015

Figure 3.13. Market concentration of container shipping lines 2000-16

Figure 3.14. Container ship capacity on Far East-Mediterranean route by alliance and by port (2015)

Box 3.1. Global oversupply of vessels.

Figure 3.15. Global merchant fleet and seaborne trade, 1995-2015

Challenges of hinterland transport

Table 3.4. Capacity needs for surface freight by continent

Table 3.5. Capacity needs for surface freight by continent within 50 km of centroids and ports

Box 3.2. The Physical Internet

Decision making under uncertainty

Consumption patterns

Production patterns

Energy production

Alternative shipping routes

Annex 3.A. ITF International Freight Model

Transport network model

Centroids

Freight mode choice model

Weight/value model

Generation of the model outputs

Figure 3.A1. Schematic description of the ITF international freight model

Freight transport network: A detailed representation

Figure 3.A2. Freight transport networks

Port capacity

Road and rail capacity: Adding constraints

Table 3.A1. Statistical and capacity characterisation of road network

Table 3.A2. Rail line engineering capacity

Table 3.A3. Rail infrastructure classification and freight capacity estimation

Chapter 4. International passenger aviation

Modelling global passenger demand

Competition

Box 4.1. Quantifying competition in the air market

Figure 4.1. Competition in international aviation

Network expansion

Figure 4.2. Relationship between distance, GDP and air connections

Three alternative scenarios for network evolution

Figure 4.3. Share of low-cost carriers in regional, international flights

Passenger demand for air transport until 2050

Analysis of global demand

Figure 4.4. Demand for passenger aviation by region

The elasticity of travel demand to income

Regional differences

Figure 4.5. Regional breakdown of passenger-kilometres

Impact of entry restrictions

Table 4.1. International connectivity for selected countries.

Figure 4.6. Annual growth of the size of the air network, by origin region

CO2 emissions from international aviation

Box 4.3. Airport Carbon Accreditation Programme

Figure 4.7. CO2 emissions from airports participating in the Airport Carbon Accreditation program

Quantifying CO2 emissions from aviation

Table 4.2. Breakdown of CO2 emissions from aviation

CO2 emissions from passenger international aviation up to 2030

Figure 4.8. CO2 emissions from international aviation

Long-term prospects

Accessibility by air

Global indicator of accessibility by air

Air accessibility today

Figure 4.9. Average travel time to the alpha-cities

Figure 4.10. Average travel time to the alpha-cities by region, 2004-15

Outlook for accessibility by air

Figure 4.11. Average number of alpha-cities reachable in less than 24 hours

Annex 4.A. Modelling framework for international aviation (passenger)

Passenger demand projections: modelling framework

Figure 4.A1. Schematic description of the ITF international aviation model

Figure 4.A2. Geographical distribution of cities and alpha-cities

Table 4.A1. Data sources

Chapter 5. Mobility in cities

Modelling passenger transport demand in cities

Figure 5.1. Total population of cities over 300 000 inhabitants

Figure 5.2. GDP per capita in cities and countries by region

Towards a global model for passenger transport demand in cities

Box 5.1. City Mobility database

Transport policy scenarios

Baseline

ROG Scenario

LUT Scenario

Table 5.1. Specification of the three policy scenarios for city passenger transport

Passenger mobility in cities up to 2050

Mode shares

Figure 5.3. Car share in cities by region

Figure 5.4. Mobility by mode of transport, Asia and North America.

Table 5.2. Share of car and public transport by region.

Notes:

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

92-821-0816-3

92-821-0800-7

OCLC:

1024269401