OECD economic surveys : Japan 1996-1997 / Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, issuing body.

Series:

OECD Economic Surveys: Japan

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic history.

Japan--Economic conditions.

Japan.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (203 pages)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Paris, France : OECD Publishing, [1997]

Language Note:

English

Summary:

Assessment and recommendations I. Recent trends and prospects -A moderate recovery... -... driven by exports... -... and, until recently, by private investment -In contrast, private consumption remained subdued... -... while both public investment and stockbuilding depressed demand -With import growth slackening... -... the external surplus has started to rise -Given the slow improvement in the labour market... -... wage and price increases stay low -Short-term outlook: the recovery could regain some momentum II. Monetary policy and the financial system -With interest rates extremely low... -... capital outflows accelerated, pushing down the exchange rate... -... and leaving monetary conditions extremely easy -However, money and credit growth has remained weak -Despite some asset prices stabilising... -... balance sheet difficulties persist for certain financial institutions -To address these problems a new regulatory environment is being introduced -Overall assessment III. Fiscal policy in a medium-term perspective -How serious is Japan's public finance situation? -The need for medium-term fiscal consolidation -The need for some rationalisation of public spending -The need for increased budget transparency -Summary IV. Regulatory reform -The scope of deregulation to date -Recent initiatives -Scope for further action V. The sustainability of the social security system -The scale of the problem -Macroeconomic consequences -The effects on public finances -The policy response -Concluding remarks Bibliography Annex -Chronology of main economic events Statistical annex and structural indicators.

Contents:

Intro

Table of contents

Assessment and recommendations

I. Recent trends and prospects

A moderate recovery...

Table 1. Demand and output

Figure 1. REAL GDP GROWTH

Figure 2. CAPACITY UTILISATION AND OUTPUT GAP

... driven by exports...

Figure 3. INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS AND EXPORT MARKET SHARE

Table 2. Japanese direct investment abroad

Table 3. Japanese manufacturing production overseas

... and, until recently, by private investment

Figure 4. BUSINESS INVESTMENT AND CORPORATE PROFITABILITY

Figure 5. FINANCIAL BALANCE OF THE CORPORATE SECTOR

Figure 6. CORPORATE INDEBTEDNESS

Figure 7. HOUSING STARTS AND CREDIT CONDITIONS

In contrast, private consumption remained subdued...

Table 4. Household income

... while both public investment and stockbuilding depressed demand

Figure 8. STOCKS IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

With import growth slackening...

Table 5. External balances

Figure 9. IMPORT PENETRATION AND RELATIVE IMPORT PRICES

... the external surplus has started to rise

Given the slow improvement in the labour market...

Table 6. Labour market developments

Figure 10. UNEMPLOYMENT BY AGE

... wage and price increases stay low

Table 7. Wages and earnings

Figure 11. INFLATION INDICATORS

Short-term outlook: the recovery could regain some momentum

Table 8. Short-term prospects

Figure 12. CHANGE IN THE BUSINESS CLIMATE

II. Monetary policy and the financial system

With interest rates extremely low...

Figure 13. INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS

Box 1. The new Bank of Japan law

... capital outflows accelerated, pushing down the exchange rate...

Figure 14. EXCHANGE RATE BEHAVIOUR AND INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS

Table 9. International capital flows

... and leaving monetary conditions extremely easy

Figure 15. MONETARY CONDITIONS INDICATOR.

However, money and credit growth has remained weak

Figure 16. GROWTH OF THE MONEY STOCK

Table 10. Contributions to the growth of the money stock

Despite some asset prices stabilising...

Figure 17. REAL ESTATE PRICES

Figure 18. SHARE PRICES BY SECTOR

... balance sheet difficulties persist for certain financial institutions

The extent of bad loans

Table 11. Non-performing loans at deposit-taking institutions

The position of various categories of banks and non-banks

Table 12. Balance sheets of major banks

Table 13. Key bank profitability and solvency ratios

Figure 19. THE VARIABILITY OF BAD LOANS BY BANKS

To address these problems a new regulatory environment is being introduced

Overall assessment

III. Fiscal policy in a medium-term perspective

How serious is Japan's public finance situation?

The deterioration in the government financial position up to 1995

Table 14. General government financial balances

Figure 20. FISCAL INDICATORS

Box 2. Central and local government debt

Figure 21. MEASURES OF CENTRAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT INDEBTEDNESS

Table 15. Assets and liabilities of central and local governments

The fiscal correction in 1996 and 1997

Table 16. Central government budget

The need for medium-term fiscal consolidation

The government's programme

Table 17. Public expenditure plans for the period FY 1998 to FY 2000

Figure 22. DEFICIT REDUCTION COMPARED TO INITIAL DEFICIT

Table 18. Fiscal tightening required to reach the deficit target of the government

The impact of the planned deficit reduction on the economy

The need for some rationalisation of public spending

Figure 23. AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF PUBLIC SPENDING

Improving the quality of public investment

Table 19. An international comparison of construction prices.

Figure 24. THE LEVEL AND RETURN ON GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT

Reviewing the role of public corporations and the FILP programme

Non-financial institutions

Table 20. Debt and investment of principal non-financial public corporations and government enterprises

Table 21. Public corporations: income and outlay accounts

Financial institutions

Figure 25. THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES

The need for increased budget transparency

Table 22. Revenues and surpluses of government special accounts by national accounts sector

Summary

IV.Regulatory reform

The scope of deregulation to date

Table 23. Impact of deregulation on demand

Table 24. Regulation of large stores

Figure 26. GASOLINE PRICES

Recent initiatives

Table 25. The revised ''Deregulation Action Programme''

The ""Big Bang'' planned in the financial system

Table 26. Outline of major elements in the ''Big Bang'' deregulation plan

Other areas

Transport

Table 27. Variation in airline ticket prices

Telecommunications

Figure 27. TELEPHONE CHARGES IN OECD COUNTRIES

Figure 28. THE COST OF INTERNATIONAL TELEPHONE CALLS

Energy

Housing and land

The distribution system

The labour market

Table 28. Implementing the OECD Jobs Strategy - an overview of progress

Table 28. Implementing the OECD Jobs Strategy - an overview of progress (cont.)

Competition policy

Table 29. Activities of the Fair Trade Commission

The Administrative Procedures Law

Table 30. The central government's handling of applications for regulatory permits

The links between the private and public sectors

Table 31. Number of retiring civil servants taking private-sector jobs

Scope for further action

Table 32. Estimated economic effects of deregulation

V. The sustainability of the social security system

The scale of the problem.

Figure 29. POPULATION AGEING: AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON

Figure 30. RATIO OF ELDERLY TO YOUNGER PEOPLE

Table 33. Main assumptions underlying the official population projections

Figure 31. FERTILITY RATES

Figure 32. AVERAGE LIFE EXPECTANCY IN OECD COUNTRIES

Macroeconomic consequences

Impact on the labour supply

Figure 33. THE CHANGING AGE STRUCTURE OF THE LABOUR FORCE

Figure 34. THE CHANGE IN THE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES OF OLDER MEN

Impact on future growth prospects

Table 34. Factors contributing to economic growth

Figure 35. GROWTH OF TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY AND THE LABOUR FORCE

Impact on investment

Impact on saving

Households

Figure 36. SAVING RATES OF DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF HOUSEHOLDS

Table 35. Factors influencing the savings rate, 1995-2005

Corporate pension funds

Impact on the external balance

Figure 37. PRIVATE-SECTOR SAVING AND INVESTMENT BALANCE

The effects on public finances

Social security pensions

Design

Box 3. Pension provision in Japan

Table 36. A comparison of state pension schemes

Box 4. Benefits and contributions under the state pension system

Cost: outlook and risks

Figure 38. OFFICIAL PROJECTIONS OF THE SURPLUS AND CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT INSURANCE FUND

Figure 39. BOND YIELDS AND WAGE GROWTH

Health insurance for the elderly

Figure 40. PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURE

Box 5. Health insurance in Japan

Table 37. Outline of Japan's health insurance system

Figure 41. MEDICAL COSTS OF THE AVERAGE PATIENT BY AGE GROUP

Table 38. Projections of public health care spending: an international comparison

Overall fiscal impact

Table 39. Projections of government spending in Japan

Table 40. Projected pension expenditure relative to GDP

Table 41. General government spending on the elderly by level of government.

The policy response

Reforming public pensions

Sustainability

Table 42. Number of persons over the retirement age relative to the working-age population

Intergenerational equity

Figure 42. STATE PENSION BENEFITS AND CONTRIBUTIONS BY YEAR OF BIRTH

Reforming health care

Figure 43. DISTRIBUTION OF AVERAGE MEDICAL COSTS PER CASE

Raising participation and birth rates

Figure 44. LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES OF WOMEN BY AGE

Figure 45. FERTILITY RATES: COMPARISON WITH NORDIC COUNTRIES

Concluding remarks

Notes

Bibliography

Annex. Chronology of main economic events

STATISTICAL ANNEX AND STRUCTURAL INDICATORS

Table A. Selected background statistics

Table B. Gross domestic product and expenditure

Table C. Gross domestic product and expenditure

Table D. Net domestic product by industry of origin

Table E. The distribution of national income

Table F. Income and expenditure of households

Table G. Appropriation account for general government

Table H. Allocation of funds through the FILP

Table I. Appropriation account for public enterprises

Table J. Local government budget (initial plan)

Table K. Foreign trade by commodity

Table L. Foreign trade by area

Table M. Exports to the United States and to the European Union

Table N. Balance of payments

Table O. Public sector

Table P. Financial markets

Table Q. Labour market indicators

Table R. Production structure and performance indicators

BASIC STATISTICS: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

BASIC STATISTICS: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS (cont'd)

MAIN SALES OUTLETS OF OECD PUBLICATIONS / PRINCIPAUX POINTS DE VENTE DES PUBLICATIONS DE L'OCDE

BOXES

Box 1. The new Bank of Japan law.

Box 2. Central and local government debt.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Description based on print version record.

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

ISBN:

92-64-14954-6

OCLC:

1226587684