OECD economic outlook : December 1999 / Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, issuing body.

Series:

OECD Economic Outlook

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic development.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (269 pages)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Paris, France : OECD Publishing, [1999]

Language Note:

English

Summary:

Editorial I. General assessment of the macroeconomic situation -The global economic situation and the outlook for the OECD area -Current macroeconomic policy requirements in major OECD regions -Medium-term fiscal priorities -Sustaining the momentum for structural reforms -Appendix: Quantifying the medium-term consequences of risks to the US economy II. Developments in individual OECD countries -United States -Japan -Germany -France -Italy -United Kingdom -Canada -Australia -Austria -Belgium -Czech Republic -Denmark -Finland -Greece -Hungary -Iceland -Ireland -Korea -Luxembourg -Mexico -Netherlands -New Zealand -Norway -Poland -Portugal -Spain -Sweden -Switzerland -Turkey III. Developments in selected non-member economies -Dynamic Asia And China -Russian Federation and Central and Eastern Europe -South America IV. The size and role of automatic fiscal stabilisers -How large are automatic fiscal stabilisers? -What impact do automatic fiscal stabilisers have on the economy? -Do automatic fiscal stabilisers have an impact on longer-term performance? -Appendix: Gauging automatic fiscal stabilisers V. Making work pay -The economic situation of persons with low skills -Making work pay policies in the 1990s -The impact of making work pay policies -Enhancing the effectiveness of making work pay policies VI. Public debt management at the cross-roads -Debt management as debt is dramatically lowered: the case of the United States -Challenges in developing a unified bond market: the case of the euro area -Debt management when the stock of debt is growing: the case of Japan -Appendix: The primary objectives of debt management: minimising cost while reducing risk VII. Cross-country Patterns of product market regulation The general picture -Regulatory profiles -Conclusions Statistical Annex -Country classification -Weighting scheme for aggregate measures -Annex

Tables.

Contents:

Intro

Foreword

Table of contents

List of Boxes

Box I.1. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections

Box I.2. The rise in oil prices: a cause for concern?

Figure: Trends in oil prices and oil dependence

Box I.2. The rise in oil prices: a cause for concern? (cont.)

Table: The effects of a 10 oil price increase

Box I.3. Overhaul of the national accounts in OECD countries

Table: Magnitude and range of impacts from the shift to SNA93 and ESA95 on selected indicators for 1995

Box I.4. The medium-term consequences of specific risks to the US economy

Box I.4. The medium-term consequences of specific risks to the US economy (cont.)

Box I.5. The medium-term reference scenario

Table: Medium-term reference scenario summary

Box I.5. The medium-term reference scenario (cont.)

Table: Fiscal trends in the medium term

Box I.6. Structural reform agenda for OECD countries at the start of the 1990s

Box: New methodology for the presentation of US economic data

Box III.1. Financial restructuring in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand

Box VI.1. Liquidity

Table: Liquidity indicators for major OECD countries' government bond markets

Box VI.2. Debt management and monetary policies

Box VII.1. The regulatory database and indicators

List of Tables

Table I.1. Output growth projections

Table I.2. General government financial balancesa

Table I.3. World trade summary

Table I.4. Oil and non-oil commodity prices

Table I.5. Unemployment and inflation

Table I.6. Current account balances

Table I.7. Japan: policy measures to stimulate the economy in 1999

Table I.8. Government budget positions in EU countries: projections and targets

Table I.9. Trade-policy indicators 1988-96

Table I.10. The medium-term reference scenario

Table I.11. Boom-bust scenario.

Table I.12. US dollar weakening scenario

Table I.13. Stock market correction scenario

Table III.1. Projections for selected Asian Economiesa

Table III.2. Projections for Russia and the Slovak Republica

Table III.3. Projections for Argentina and Brazila

Table IV.1. Cyclical component of general government balancea

Table IV.2. Automatic fiscal stabilisers and the fiscal stance

Table IV.3. Volatility of economic activity and public finances with and without discretionary...

Table IV.4. Tax and expenditure elasticities

Table VI.1. Features of the maturity profile for central government debt

Table VI.2. Central government securities by type of instrument

Table VI.3. Debt dynamics

Table VI.4. A comparison of the size of some important bond markets

Table VI.5. General government share of total bond debt

Table VI.6. Selected characteristics of bond markets in major OECD countries

Table VI.7. Holders of government debt securities

List of Figures

Figure I.1. Bond yields and equity prices

Figure I.2. Spread between corporate and government long-term bond yields

Figure I.3. Exchange rates

Figure I.4. Global trade and payments discrepancies

Figure I.5. Contribution to real GDP growth in the OECD area

Figure I.6. Inflation developments in the United States

Figure I.7. Saving and net lending in the United States

Figure I.8. Inflation trends in the euro area

Figure I.9. Change in general government structural balance, 1995-99

Figure I.10. Protection in the agriculture sector

Figure I.11. Cumulated privatisation proceeds, 1990-98

Figure I.12. Marginal tax rates on earnings of an avantage production worker, 1997

Figure III.1. Credit conditions and external balances in Brazil and Argentina.

Figure IV.1. Cyclical sensitivity of the fiscal position and government size, 1999

Figure IV.2. Impact of automatic fiscal stabilisers

Figure IV.3. Breakdown of cumulated gross public debt

Figure V.1. Individuals aged 25-64 with lower secondary education or less, 1996

Figure V.2. Economic conditionns of individuals with lower secondary education or less, 1996

Figure V.3. Employer social security contribution in 1999: Reforms in selected countries

Figure V.4. In-work tax credits in the United States and the United Kingdom in 1999

Figure VII.1. Taxonomy of economic and administrative regulations

Figure VII.2. Overall regulatory approaches

Figure VII.3. Inward-oriented regulations

Figure VII.4. Regulatory approaches across countries

Figure VII.5. State control and legal barriers to competition

Conventional signs

Summary of projections

Editorial

Chapter I. General assessment of the macroeconomic situation

The global economic situation and the outlook for the OECD area

Current macroeconomic policy requirements in major OECD regions

Box I.3. Overhaul of the national accounts in OECD countries.

Table: Magnitude and range of impacts from the shift to SNA93 and ESA95 on selected indicators for 1995

Medium-term fiscal priorities

Sustaining the momentum for structural reforms

Appendix: Quantifying the medium term consequences of risks to the US economy

Boom-bust

Table I.11. Boom-bust scenario

Significant weakening of the dollar

Stock market correction

Table I.12. US dollar weakening scenario

Chapter II. Developments in individual OECD countries

United States.

Figure: The capital stock has increased rapidly - The potential growth rate of the economy has risen

Table: Employment, income and inflation

Figure: The current account deficit has increased - Inflationary pressures have edged up

Table: Financial indicators

Table: Demand and output

Table: External indicators

Japan

Figure: Recovery is now underway - The credit crunch has eased

Figure: Some financial indicators have rebounded - Bank credit risks have fallen

Germany

Figure: Business sentiment has begun to improve - Industrial orders have picked up

Figure: Unemployment is no longer declining - Consumer confidence remains strong

France

Figure: Lower unemployment helps boost consumer consumer confidence - Real wages have increased

Figure: Business confidence has improved - Current account still in surplus

Italy

Figure: Output growth has been held back by external demand - Domestic prices have accelerated slightly

Figure: Services drive the expansion of employment - Order books are strengthening

United Kingdom

Figure: The slowdown has been mild and brief - The strong pound has affected export performance

Table: Employment, income and inflation.

Figure: Monetary policy has been active - Inflation has remained close to target.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Description based on print version record.

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

ISBN:

92-64-16847-8

OCLC:

732878162