OECD Economic Outlook. Volume 2024, Issue 1 / OECD.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, author, issuing body.

Series:

OECD Economic Outlook Series

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic history.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (223 pages).

Edition:

2024 edition.

Place of Publication:

Paris : OECD Publishing, 2024.

Summary:

There are signs that the global outlook has begun to brighten. Activity remains more resilient than expected, although with considerable divergence across economies, inflation is falling steadily and unemployment remains low. Global growth is projected to remain unchanged in 2024 and strengthen modestly in 2025, with inflation returning to target in most countries by the end of 2025.

Contents:

Intro

Acknowledgements

Editorial An unfolding recovery

1. General assessment of the macroeconomic situation

Introduction

Recent Developments

Global activity has proved surprisingly resilient so far

Inflation has fallen towards targets, but some pressures persist

Trade is showing signs of recovery

Financial conditions have eased but real interest rates remain elevated

Projections

Risks

Geopolitical risks remain elevated

Inflation may prove more persistent than projected

Financial markets remain vulnerable to sudden repricing

The lagged effects from policy tightening could still expose vulnerabilities

Narrowing policy rate differentials with advanced economies and rising debt are key risks in emerging markets

Growth outcomes in China are uncertain

Upside risks

Policies

Monetary policy should remain prudent to ensure durable disinflation

Fiscal policy needs to address mounting pressures to ensure debt sustainability

In emerging-market economies, improved monetary policy space should be used prudently and accompanied by fiscal reforms

More ambition is needed on structural policies to improve growth and advance the climate transition

Innovation policies have a critical role in strengthening productivity

Innovation is also an essential pillar of the green transition

Trade and industrial policies should ensure that markets are kept open

References

Annex 1.A. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections

2. Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies

Argentina

Activity has contracted sharply

Fiscal and monetary policies are tightening

Restoring macroeconomic stability is essential for the recovery

Progress with structural reforms needs to be stepped up

Australia. The economy is slowing but the labour market remains tight

Monetary policy is restrictive but fiscal policy will support the economy in 2024

Economic growth will increase in 2025

Productivity-enhancing reforms could support the recovery

Austria

Economic activity has reached a trough

The public deficit will remain high

The economy will recover only slowly

Structural reforms are needed to make the economy resilient

Belgium

Economic growth has slowed

Fiscal consolidation will commence in 2025

Economic activity will remain resilient

Putting debt on a sustainable track

Brazil

Economic activity is picking up slowly

Fiscal policy is struggling to meet consolidation targets

Growth will pick up

Fiscal consolidation is needed to restore confidence

Bulgaria

Recent growth has been driven by consumption and investment

Fiscal policy is expansionary

Growth is expected to recover

Further macro-prudential policy and a more prudent fiscal policy is warranted

Canada

Growth in economic activity has started to recover

Less contractionary monetary policy is on the horizon

Output growth will strengthen

Bolstering productive capacity and achieving climate targets

Chile

Activity is picking up

Monetary easing and moderate fiscal deficits are set to continue

Growth will resume in 2024 and strengthen in 2025

Cutting red tape and reforming the tax system can spur more inclusive growth

China

Economic growth has firmed

Monetary and fiscal policy are becoming expansionary

Growth will continue to slow gradually

There is ample room to lift the growth potential through structural reforms

Colombia

Growth has slowed further

Policy rates will gradually relax, but fiscal risks loom

Economic growth will remain weak. Revitalising investment would support growth and the green transition

Costa Rica

Growth has strengthened amid negative inflation

Monetary policy easing will continue amid prudent fiscal policy

Growth will remain robust

Persevere with reforms in competition and education to boost growth and equity

Croatia

Private consumption and public investment have maintained robust growth

Fiscal policy will be expansionary in the near term

Growth is expected to remain robust

Fiscal and structural reforms are needed to foster investment and growth

Czechia

Inflation is slowing and economic growth is subdued

Monetary policy is easing while fiscal consolidation is under way

Economic growth will resume in 2024 and pick up in 2025

Reforms are needed to ensure fiscal sustainability and support growth

Denmark

Economic growth has been strong, but domestic demand has been weak

Monetary and fiscal policies will support economic activity

GDP growth will stabilise and inflation moderate

Addressing labour shortages to reduce risks and boost economic potential

Estonia

Economic activity has remained weak

Fiscal policy needs to balance rebuilding of buffers with stabilisation of the economy

Economic growth will gather momentum in 2025

Reforms are needed to underpin productivity growth

Euro area

The economy remains resilient amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty

Macroeconomic policy will remain restrictive

Growth will strengthen in 2025 as domestic demand picks up

Macroeconomic policies should remain prudent

Finland

High interest rates continue to weigh on private consumption

Fiscal policy remains expansionary in 2024, but will tighten in 2025

Growth is expected to pick up but downside risks remain

Reviving productivity is crucial for sustainable growth

France. Activity stalled in the second half of 2023

Government support is weakening

A moderate recovery is expected in 2025 after a slowdown in 2024

Further fiscal consolidation will be needed

Germany

Private consumption has started to recover but investment has weakened

Fiscal policy will be restrictive

The economy will slowly recover due to rising private consumption

Advancing the green and digital transitions requires more investment

Greece

The economy remains resilient

The debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to decline

Boosting productivity and fiscal consolidation are key challenges

Hungary

Growth has gained momentum but remains fragile

Monetary policy is easing gradually and fiscal consolidation is under way

Economic growth is expected to rebound from 2024

Structural reforms are needed for stronger and more sustainable growth

Iceland

The economy is slowing

Monetary policy tightening has peaked, and fiscal policy remains contractionary

The economy will slow further in 2024 but rebound in 2025

Improvements in the business climate and continued fiscal consolidation would help sustain growth

India

Public investment has boosted aggregate demand

Monetary policy will start loosening and fiscal consolidation remains a priority

A moderate slowdown is expected

Fiscal consolidation should be accompanied by reforms, including in agriculture

Indonesia

Domestic demand remains strong

The policy mix will gradually become more accommodative

Domestic demand will drive growth

Reforms are needed to sustain growth and prosperity

Ireland

The labour market is buoyant

Tax revenues remain robust

Risks to growth are considerable

Sustainable public finances are needed to deliver on long-term reforms

Israel.

The attacks and subsequent war have wide-ranging economic consequences

Economic policy is responding to the war

Consumption is driving the recovery

Fiscal adjustment and monetary stability are needed to keep the economy on track

Italy

Activity remains weak

High borrowing costs are weighing on activity

Inflation will remain low as growth picks up only modestly

Putting the debt ratio on a more prudent path requires fiscal adjustment and structural reforms

Japan

Domestic demand is weak, but there are emerging signs of recovery

Macroeconomic support is projected to gradually decrease

Growth will moderate in 2024, before picking up in 2025

Structural and fiscal reforms are needed for resilient and sustainable growth

Korea

Growth is rebounding from a soft patch

Monetary and fiscal restraint continue

Growth is projected to strengthen

Structural challenges require policy action

Latvia

Rising real wages are supporting private consumption

Fiscal policy will remain expansionary

The recovery will be driven by domestic demand

Stronger investment is required to support inclusive and sustainable growth

Lithuania

Declining exports are weighing on economic activity

Energy price falls will ease fiscal pressures

Growth is expected to rebound

Reforms are required to secure stronger and more sustainable growth

Luxembourg

Economic activity has continued to contract

Fiscal policy will be mildly restrictive

Activity will recover over 2024-25

Restoring growth and maintaining low public debt are key challenges

Malaysia

Economic activity has moderated

Monetary policy is neutral while fiscal consolidation is underway

The economy will strengthen gradually

Making economic growth more equitable and sustainable

Mexico

Domestic demand is resilient.

Notes:

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

ISBN:

9789264795105