OECD economic outlook 91, May 2012.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Series:

OECD economic outlook, 0474-5574 ; v. 2012/1, no. 91

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic forecasting--OECD countries--Statistics.

Economic forecasting.

OECD countries--Economic conditions--Statistics.

OECD countries.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (301 p.)

Place of Publication:

Paris : OECD, 2012.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances. Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, chapters summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country, a chapter on medium and long-term scenarios for growth and imbalances, and a and a statistical annex.

Contents:

Table of Contents; Summary of projections; Editorial: Confidence, Recovery, and the Euro: Is it Different this Time?; Chapter 1. General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation; Summary; Introduction; Table 1.1. The global recovery is slowly regaining momentum; Key forces acting; Figure 1.1. Investors continue to discriminate strongly across euro area sovereign bonds; Figure 1.2. It is relatively expensive to insure unsecured bank debt against default; Figure 1.3. Aggregate financial conditions have improved this year; Figure 1.4. Business confidence has tended to stabilise or improve

Figure 1.5. The implied volatility of share prices has moderatedFigure 1.6. Recent trends in new car registrations diverge across regions; Box 1.1. Cross-country progress in private sector deleveraging; Debt indicators in the private sector; Figure 1.7. House prices are falling in real terms in many countries; Table 1.2. House price-to-rent ratios remain high in some countries; Figure 1.8. Oil prices are high; Table 1.3. Effects of an oil price increase on GDP and inflation - Survey of recent estimates; The near-term projection; Box 1.2. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections

Figure 1.9. Underlying inflation is likely to remain subduedTable 1.4. OECD labour market conditions are diverging; Figure 1.10. Considerable labour market slack is set to persist; Box 1.3. Using Okun's law to track recent cyclical developments; Gauging spare capacity using Okun's law; Figure 1.11. Progress in reducing global imbalances has stalled; Table 1.5. World trade is set to strengthen, but imbalances remain; Figure 1.12. Financial account related risk factors to financial stability; Tackling imbalances in the euro area; Figure 1.13. Euro area unit labour costs have begun to adjust

Figure 1.14. Changes in euro area countries domestic demand and trade balances 2009-13Box 1.4. Challenges in implementing the new budgetary rules in the European Union; Most binding European Union fiscal rules under stylised assumptions; Policies in the main projection; Table 1.6. Fiscal positions will improve only slowly; Figure 1.15. Size and duration of consolidation episodes in the OECD area since the 1980s; Figure 1.16. Output gaps and non-performing loans; Bibliography; Chapter 2. Developments in Individual OECD Countries; United States; Japan; Euro Area; Germany; France; Italy

United KingdomCanada; Australia; Austria; Belgium; Chile; Czech Republic; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; Greece; Hungary; Iceland; Ireland; Israel; Korea; Luxembourg; Mexico; Netherlands; New Zealand; Norway; Poland; Portugal; Slovak Republic; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; Switzerland; Turkey; Chapter 3.Developments in Selected Non-member Economies; Brazil; China; India; Indonesia; Russian Federation; South Africa; Chapter 4. Medium and Long-term Scenarios for Global Growth and Imbalances; Introduction and summary; A new modelling framework based on conditional convergence

Box 4.1. The new modelling framework for long-term economic projections

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN:

92-64-17890-2

OCLC:

809768221