OECD economic surveys : Turkey 1999 / Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, issuing body.

Series:

OECD Economic Surveys: Turkey

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Social security--Turkey.

Social security.

Economic history.

Turkey--Economic conditions.

Turkey.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (173 pages)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Paris, France : OECD Publishing, [1999]

Language Note:

English

Summary:

Assessment and recommendations I. Slow growth, instability and inflation -Cyclical background to the current instability -Responses to the global financial crisis -Monetary policy: a stabilising role -Economic prospects II. Budget deficits and debt: correcting structural imbalances -Policy background -Progress towards budget consolidation -The debt burden -Correcting structural budget deficiencies -Assessment of the consolidation process III. Reforming the social security system -Introduction -Organisation and development of social protection -Economic and social distortions implied by the current social security system -Directions for reform IV. Structural reform for better-balanced growth -Turkey's longer-run economic performance -Enhancing product market competition -Infrastructure improvement -Towards more efficient financial markets -Labour markets and human capital -Improving the policy-making process Annexes -I. Quantifying output gains of disinflation -II. The dynamics of government debt accumulation -III. The ILO pension reform proposals -IV. Calculation of implied real pension rates of return -V. Chronology of main economic events Statistical annex and structural indicators.

Contents:

Intro

Table of contents

BASIC STATISTICS OF TURKEY

Assessment and recommendations

I. Slow growth, instability and inflation

Figure 1. Macroeconomic performance

Cyclical background to the current instability

Rapid growth and weakening external balance, 1995-97

Figure 2. Contributions to demand growth

Table 1. Decomposition of output growth by sector

Figure 3. Interest-rate developments

Table 2. Official foreign exchange reserves

Figure 4. Current account, direct investment and external debt

Policy response to high inflation: the 1998 stabilisation programme

Figure 5. Inflation developments

Box 1. The 1998-2000 Stabilisation Programme

Responses to the global financial crisis

Effects on trade

Figure 6. Geographical distribution of foreign trade

Table 3. Current account of the balance of payments

Financial impact of global instability

Table 4. Net capital movements

Table 5. Financial market developments:

Monetary policy: a stabilising role

Monetary policy priorities

Table 6. Monetary conditions

Figure 7. Bank credit to the private sector

Stresses in the financial system

Table 7. Open positions of the banking system

Figure 8. Currency substitution

Economic prospects

Short-term outlook

Table 8. Short-term outlook

The longer-run costs of persistent inflation

Figure 9. Inflation variability

Figure 10. Cumulative simulated impact of public-sector debt on the level of GNP

Benefits of returning to low inflation

II. Budget deficits and debt: correcting structural imbalances

Policy background

Progress towards budget consolidation

Fiscal policy in 1998

Table 9. Consolidated budget statement

Figure 11. Consolidated budget and primary budget balances

The 1999 Budget situation

Off-budget developments and the PSBR.

Table 10. Fiscal accounts at different levels of government

The debt burden

Debt management

Table 11. Consolidated budget financing

Figure 12. Public sector debt indicators

Figure 13. Debt redemption and redemption ratios

The credibility of the fiscal consolidation process

Table 12. Contribution to changes in the central government ''cash'' debt ratio

Table 13. Evolution of total domestic government debt

Table 14. Central government debt scenarios

Correcting structural budget deficiencies

Controlling public sector wage and price developments

Figure 14. Real wage dynamics

Correcting the defects in the tax system

Broadening the tax base

The need for a more efficient tax administration

The privatisation programme

Improving budget planning and enhancing transparency

Table 15. Seignorage and inflation tax

Assessment of the consolidation process

III. Reforming the social security system

Introduction

Figure 15. Social expenditures in selected OECD countries

Organisation and development of social protection

The social insurance system in Turkey

Figure 16. Three main social security organisations: active insured, pensioners and dependants

Basic architecture

Box 2. Turkish social security: social insurance or tax-funded?

Figure 17. Current balances of the social security organisations

Narrowing of the contribution base

Problems with the pension system

Figure 18. The effect of non-registration on pension fund balances

Table 16. Pay-as-you-go pension disequilibrium

Expansion of health spending

Box 3. Supply of health services and their rationing

Figure 19. Structure of health care spending in selected OECD countries

Unemployment protection

Social assistance

Old age income support

Access to health care by the poor.

Economic and social distortions implied by the current social security system

Effect on industrial organisation

Labour market impact

Income adequacy

Quality of health care

Directions for reform

Pension reform

Reform objectives and strategy

Figure 20. Demographic projections

Box 4. Recommendations for reform of the pension system

Attempts at reform so far

Making social security solvent

Table 17. Main parameters of public pension schemes in selected countries

Figure 21. Impact on pension deficits of increased retirement age and longer contribution period

Table 18. Pension rates of return

Administrative reform of the social security system

Pre-funding of social security

Adding a private funded pillar

Box 5. Pension reforms in other countries

Complementary social protection

Health-care reform

Financing reform

Service delivery reform

Restructuring primary care

Hospital decentralisation: the creation of Health Enterprises

Organisational reform

Assessment

Box 6. Recommendations for reform of the health system

IV. Structural reform for better-balanced growth

Turkey's longer-run economic performance

Figure 22. Real gross domestic product per capita

Table 19. OECD Economic Survey recommendations for structural reforms

Enhancing product market competition

A liberal import regime and strengthened framework for domestic competition

A distorted agricultural sector

Figure 23. Agricultural support measures

Box 7. OECD shared goals and operational criteria for agricultural policy measures

Reforming the State Economic Enterprises

Table 20. Weight and relative productivity of state enterprises in manufacturing

Infrastructure improvement

Meeting electricity demands

An inefficient rail system.

Box 8. Reforming railways: lessons from OECD experience

Table 21. Railway statistics

Communications

Towards more efficient financial markets

Financial intermediation is under-developed...

...and banking supervision needs to be strengthened

State banks must be restructured

Labour markets and human capital

Increasing participation

Table 22. Labour force participation rates

Figure 24. Work-force participation

Table 23. Men and women in different sectors of activity

Enhancing human capital development

Table 24. Public investment in education

Table 25. Adult illiteracy rates in selected OECD countries

Integrating the informal sector

Improving the policy-making process

Box 9. Recommendations for further structural reform

Notes

Annex I. Quantifying output gains of disinflation

Table A1. Illustrative scenario of possible output gains from disinflation

Annex II. The dynamics of government debt accumulation

Annex III. The ILO pension reform proposals

Main recommendations

The reform options

Figure A1. Pension deficits under ILO reform options

Annex IV. Calculation of implied real pension rates of return

Annex V. Chronology of main economic events

STATISTICAL ANNEX AND STRUCTURAL INDICATORS

Table A. Gross domestic product, current prices

Table B. Gross domestic product, constant prices

Table C. Gross domestic product by kind of activity

Table D. Industrial production

Table E. Prices

Table F. Imports by commodities

Table G. Exports by commodities

Table H. Geographical distribution of foreign trade

Table I. Balance of payments

Table J. Money and banking

Table K. Consolidated budget

List of Boxes

Box 2. Turkish social security: social insurance or tax-funded?.

Box 3. Supply of health services and their rationing

Box 8. Reforming railways: lessons from OECD experience

List of Figures

List of Tables

Table 1. Decomposition of output growth by sector.

Table 2. Official foreign exchange reserves.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Description based on print version record.

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

ISBN:

92-64-16733-1

OCLC:

1132391784