OECD-FAO agricultural outlook 2013-2022.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, issuing body.

Series:

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, 1999-1142

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Agriculture--Economic aspects--Forecasting.

Agriculture.

Agriculture--Economic aspects--Statistics.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (324 pages).

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Paris, France : OECD : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2013.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

The nineteenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook, and the ninth prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), provides projections to 2022 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. Notable in the 2013 report is the inclusion of cotton for the first time and a special feature on China. Higher costs and strong demand are expected to keep commodity prices well above historical averages with a high risk of price volatility given tight stocks, a changeable policy environment and increasing weather-related production risks. China is projected to maintain its self-sufficiency in certain key food commodities while increasing its trade and integration in world agricultural markets.

Contents:

Intro

Foreword

Acknowledgements

Table of contents

Acronyms and abbreviations

Executive summary

Chapter 1. Overview of the OECD-FAO Outlook 2013-2022

Introduction

Box 1.1. Effects of the 2012 droughts in the United States and CIS countries on cereals and oilseeds

Table 1.1. Yield changes in 2012 due to the drought

Figure 1.1. Supply and price dynamics of a drought scenario

Figure 1.2. Historical and projected stocks-to-use ratios for crop products

Food price inflation

Figure 1.3. Food price inflation in OECD and developing countries

OECD countries

Figure 1.4. Annual food price inflation rates: Selected OECD countries

Emerging economies and developing countries

Figure 1.5. Annual food price inflation rates: Emerging and developing countries

Macro and policy settings

Box 1.2. Macroeconomic and policy assumptions

Figure 1.6. GDP growth remains highly variable

Box 1.3. Energy prices - International Energy Agency - Methodology

Main commodity market developments

Agricultural prices to remain at elevated levels

Figure 1.7. Price trends in nominal terms of agricultural commodities to 2022

Figure 1.8. All agricultural commodity prices to average higher in nominal terms in 2013-22 relative to the last decade but with a mixed picture compared to the base period

Figure 1.9. Only beef, pigmeat and fish prices to average higher in real terms in 2013-22 relative to the base period and the previous decade

Food demand strongest in developing countries

Figure 1.10. Higher consumption of crop products

Figure 1.11. Higher consumption of livestock and fish products

Global agricultural production to increase but at a slower pace

Figure 1.12. Change in the production of crops

Figure 1.13. Change in the production of livestock and fish products.

Figure 1.14. Arable crop areas and yield changes

Figure 1.15. Average annual growth in net agricultural output to slow

Commodity projection highlights

Figure 1.16. Production shares for wheat, coarse grains, and rice in 2022

Figure 1.17. Country shares of bio-ethanol and bio-diesel production by 2022

Figure 1.18. Production shares of dairy products to grow in developing countries

Figure 1.19. Growth of per capita meat consumption by region and meat type, 2022 vs. 2010-12 (kt c.w.e. or r.t.c)

Table 1.2. Share of OECD in world imports and exports of agricultural products declines

Figure 1.20. Increasing exports of crop products

Figure 1.21. Indonesian and Malaysian exports dominate vegetable oil export trade in 2022

Figure 1.22. Increasing exports of livestock and fish products

Security of future food supplies will depend on increasing productivity and reducing waste

Risks and uncertainties

Sources of uncertainty analysed

Summary of results

Table 1.3. ACVs (%) of key macroeconomic variables and the crude price, 2013-22

Figure 1.23. Crude oil price (USD/barrel)

Figure 1.24. EUR/USD exchange rate

Relative impact of uncertainty on market outcomes by commodity

Table 1.4. ACVs (%) of yield for selected arable crops, 2013-22

Relative impacts of macroeconomic and crop yield uncertainty

Table 1.5. ACVs (%) for selected baseline variables, conditional on macroeconomic and crop yield uncertainty separately and jointly, 2013-22

Investigating specific risks

Conclusion

Notes

Chapter 2. Feeding China: Prospects and challenges in the next decade

Box 2.1. China's evolving agricultural policy priorities

The success of China's agriculture

High growth in production

Figure 2.1. Agricultural production in China.

Figure 2.2. Production of major agricultural products in China

Rural incomes have increased steadily

Figure 2.3. China: The growth of per capita annual income for rural residents

Food security has improved significantly

Table 2.1. Food Insecurity in China: FAO estimates of the number of peopleundernourished

Figure 2.4. China's per capita calorie and protein supply, ratio to OECD average

Table 2.2. China: Food consumption by category, rural vs. urban

Trade: Self sufficiency in food security commodities

Figure 2.5. China: Self-sufficiency for major crops/products

Figure 2.6. China: Self-sufficiency in livestock products

Markets have improved

Box 2.2. Domestic and international market integration

Recent research on domestic market integration in China

Indexes of market connection

The outlook for China's agricultural sector

Key factors and constraints underlying China's outlook

Box 2.3. Macroeconomic challenges facing China in the next decade

China : Consumer price indices, 2000-2012

China : Effective exchange rates, real and nominal (index : 2005 = 100)

China : Annual GDP growth rate scenario

Figure 2.7. China: Cultivated land area

Figure 2.8. The fluctuation in water resources in China

Figure 2.9. China: PSE level and composition, 1995-2012

Figure 2.10. China: Producer single commodity transfers, 2010-12

Box 2.4. China's medium term policy priorities

The commodity outlook for China 2013-22

Overview

Figure 2.11. China: Consumption growth will modestly exceed production growth

Cereals

Figure 2.12. China: Slight decrease in area with slow yield growth

Figure 2.13. Cereal production and stock ratios in China

Figure 2.14. China: Wheat feed consumption increases, rice food consumption stagnant.

Figure 2.15. China: Coarse grain feed consumption increasing with meat production

Figure 2.16. China's cereals imports

Oilseeds and oilseed products

Figure 2.17. China's main oilseed area and yield growth

Figure 2.18. China's oilseed production and composition

Figure 2.19. China's vegetable oil production, consumption and imports

Sugar

Figure 2.20. China's sugar area and yield growth

Figure 2.21. China's sugar production, consumption and imports

Vegetables and fruit

Figure 2.22. China: Per capita vegetable and fruit consumption is rising rapidly

Cotton

Figure 2.23. China: Decrease in area and yield growth also slows

Figure 2.24. Production, utilisation and net trade for cotton in China

Bio-fuels

Figure 2.25. China: Ethanol production grows slowly, with no direct impact on maize

Meat

Figure 2.26. China: Meat production - Pigmeat will continue to dominate

Figure 2.27. China: Per capita meat consumption is rising towards OECD levels

Figure 2.28. China: Bovine will be the fastest meat import sector

Fish and seafood

Figure 2.29. China: Aquaculture drives total fishery production increase

Figure 2.30. China: Fish consumption grows more slowly

Dairy

Figure 2.31. Growth of milk production in China slows

Figure 2.32. Growth of dairy product consumption in China

Figure 2.33. China: Dairy product imports will remain high over the outlook period

Impacts of alternative economic growth

Impacts of increasing constraints to production

Figure 2.34. China pork production consumption and trade

Figure 2.35. Impact on global pork prices of higher imports by China

Impacts of climate change

References

Chapter 3. Biofuels

Market situation

Projection highlights.

Figure 3.1. Strong ethanol and biodiesel prices over the Outlook period

Market trends and prospects

Prices

Production and use of biofuels

Figure 3.2. Development of the world ethanol market

Figure 3.3. Regional distribution of world ethanol production and use in 2022

Figure 3.4. Regional distribution of world biodiesel production and use in 2022

Figure 3.5. The effective US biodiesel mandate is larger than in RFS2 in four years of the Outlook

Box 3.1. Latest EC biofuel proposal: Limited impact on world prices

Figure 3.6. Change in world prices between the EC outlook and the biofuel proposal scenario, 2022

Trade in ethanol and biodiesel

Feedstocks used to produce biofuels

Figure 3.7. Share of feedstocks used for biofuels production1

Box 3.2. The flexibility in the US mandates through the roll-over provision

Figure 3.8. Yield shocks in the United States applied to 2016

Figure 3.9. Impacts of 2016 drought scenario on US ethanol production

Figure 3.10. Price impacts of the 2016 drought scenario with and without rollover flexibility

Chapter 4. Cereals

Projection highlights

Figure 4.1. Grain prices stabilise over the medium term

Figure 4.2. Moderate yield increases and weak area expansion for cereals over the medium term

Box 4.1. Thailand's rice exports reduced by its rice pledging programme

Figure 4.3. Export prices of rice 25% broken

Production

Figure 4.4. A gradual recovery of wheat stocks led by production increases in the Russian Federation

Figure 4.5. A rapid recovery of coarse grains stocks led by higher production of US corn

Box 4.2. US farm bill proposals for grain producers: from direct to risk-based payments.

Figure 4.6. World rice stocks have been gradually increasing, indirectly affected by the Thai pledging programme.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Includes bibliographical references.

Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (EBL, viewed November 2, 2015).

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

ISBN:

92-64-19422-3

OCLC:

855505030