A Methodology for Long Range Prediction of Air Transportation School of Engineering and Applied Science, Univ. of California, Los Angeles

Format:

Conference/Event

Author/Creator:

Ayati, Mohammad B., author.

Conference Name:

International Air Transportation Meeting (1980-05-20 : Cincinnati, Ohio, United States)

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource

Place of Publication:

Warrendale, PA SAE International 1980

Summary:

The purpose of a research study reported in this paper was to provide a framework and methodology for long term projection of demand for aviation fuels. It required a close examination of some of the fundamental problems of predicting long run futures. The approach taken includes two basic components. The first was a new technique for establishing the socioeconomic environment within which the future aviation industry is embedded. The concept utilized was a definition of an overall societal objective for the very long run future. Within a framework so defined, a set of scenarios by which the future will unfold are then written. These scenarios provide the determinants of the air transport industry operations and accordingly provide an assessment of future fuel requirements.The second part was the modeling of the industry in terms of an abstracted set of variables to represent the overall industry performance on a macro scale. The model was validated by testing the desired output variables from the model with histroical data over the past decades

Notes:

Vendor supplied data

Publisher Number:

800768

Access Restriction:

Restricted for use by site license