Forecasting Technology Uncertainty in Preliminary Aircraft Design Aerospace Systems Design Lab, Georgia Institute of Technology

Format:

Conference/Event

Author/Creator:

Kirby, Michelle R., author.

Conference Name:

World Aviation Congress & Exposition (1999-10-19 : San Francisco, California, United States)

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource

Place of Publication:

Warrendale, PA SAE International 1999

Summary:

An evolved version of the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) method is presented that provides techniques for quantifying technological uncertainty associated with immature technologies. Uncertainty in this context implies forecasting. Forecasting the impact of immature technologies on a system is needed to provide increased knowledge to a decision-maker in the conceptual and preliminary phases of aircraft design. The increased knowledge allows for proper allocation of company resources and program management. The TIES method addresses the milestones encountered during a technology development program, the sources of uncertainty during that development, a potential method for bounding and forecasting the uncertainty, and a means to quantify the impact of any emerging technology. A proof of concept application was performed on a High Speed Civil Transport concept due to its technically challenging customer requirements

Notes:

Vendor supplied data

Publisher Number:

1999-01-5631

Access Restriction:

Restricted for use by site license