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Contingent Expectations : Uncertainty, Risk, and Economic Behavior in Historical Perspective.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Nützenadel, Alexander.
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (313 pages)
- Edition:
- 1st ed.
- Place of Publication:
- Princeton : Princeton University Press, 2026.
- Summary:
- An empirical analysis and new theoretical framework for understanding economic expectations and decision making in different historical settings.Expectations play a crucial role in shaping economic behavior.But how are expectations actually formed, and how has this changed over time?.
- Contents:
- Cover
- Contents
- Preface and Acknowledgments
- 1. Contingent Expectations
- A Toolbox of Expectation Models
- Restoring Order in the Toolbox
- The Model of Contingent Expectations
- Contingent Expectations in Practice
- Outline of the Book
- Key Points
- 2. Expectation Formation in the Premodern Era
- Insecurity in Premodern Times
- Marine Insurance
- The London Plague Statistics
- Stockpiling
- Protestantism
- 3. Uncertainty, Risk, and the Probabilistic Revolution
- Risk, Uncertainty, and Expectations
- The Globalization of Risk
- Credit Markets and Expectation
- Real Estate: Learning to Speculate
- Insurance: The Limits of Probability
- Social Insurance and Fertility
- 4. World Wars: Sleepwalkers and Rational Agents
- The Outbreak of World War I
- Game Theory: Explaining Preemptive Strikes
- Capital Market Analysis: Revealing Investors' Beliefs
- The Elite's Denial
- Turning Points of World War I
- The Versailles Peace Treaty from a Game-Theoretic Perspective
- Modernization Effects of the German Autarky Policy
- Learning Curves
- 5. Expectation Shocks: Inflation, Depression, and Political Risks Between the World Wars
- The Interwar Crises
- Expectations in the Aftermath of the War: Money, Debt, and Inflation in the 1920s
- 1929: The Great Delusion
- Fundamentals, Panics, and Expectations: The Banking Crisis of 1931
- Out of the Abyss: Managing Expectations in the Great Depression
- Afterlives of Crises: Memories, Narratives, and History
- 6. The Rise of Economic Prediction
- Taming the Cycle: Forecast and Macroeconomic Policy Since the 1920s
- Booming Expectations: Postwar Miracle and Economic Growth
- Exporting Growth: Development and Expectations
- "In the Long Run, We Are All Dead": Forecasting and Long-Term Expectations
- The Great Illusion.
- 7. Inflation Expectations, the Phillips Curve, and Heterogeneous Experience
- Adaptive and Rational Expectations
- The Phillips Curve
- The Supply Shock of the Oil Crisis
- Learning from Hyperinflation
- The Zero Bound of Interest Rate
- Heterogeneous Inflation Experience
- Heterogeneous Information Sources
- 8. Optimism and Pessimism
- The Limits to Growth
- Risk Society
- Sentiments
- Animal Spirits
- Innovation
- 9. The Great Moderation
- Expectations in the New Monetary Regime
- Volatility and Risks in the Global Economy
- Banks and Risk Management
- 10. Heterogeneous Expectations in the Great Recession
- The Great Recession
- A Failure of the Economics Profession?
- Beyond FIRE
- Expectations in the COVID-19 Pandemic
- Memories of the Great Depression
- Conclusions
- Notes
- References
- Index.
- Notes:
- Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.
- Other Format:
- Print version: Nützenadel, Alexander Contingent Expectations
- ISBN:
- 9780691274362
- OCLC:
- 1579267271
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