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Competition, Procurement and Learning-By-Doing in the Space Launch Industry / Ruibing Su, Chenyu Yang, Andrew Sweeting.

NBER Working papers Available online

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Format:
Book
Author/Creator:
Su, Ruibing.
Contributor:
Yang, Chenyu.
Sweeting, Andrew.
National Bureau of Economic Research.
Series:
Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w34766.
NBER working paper series no. w34766
Language:
English
Physical Description:
1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
Place of Publication:
Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2026.
Summary:
We estimate a dynamic model of the U.S. space launch industry. The model allows past launches to improve rocket reliability and lower launch costs. It also allows the government to make forward-looking procurement choices. We use the model to analyze policy-relevant issues in the recent history of the industry: the 2006 United Launch Alliance "merger-to-monopoly" and the effects of efficiencies in the form of learning synergies; innovations, such as SpaceX's Falcon 9 and ULA's recent introduction of Vulcan Centaur; the costs and benefits of forward-looking procurements; and, the trade-offs between the advantages of centralized control and possible inefficiencies.
Notes:
January 2026.
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