The Economic Impact of Brexit / Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, Gregory Thwaites, Sasha Abrahams.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Bloom, Nicholas.

Contributor:

Bunn, Philip.

Mizen, Paul.

Smietanka, Pawel.

Thwaites, Gregory.

Abrahams, Sasha.

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Series:

Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w34459.

NBER working paper series no. w34459

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2025.

Summary:

This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using a decade of data since the referendum, we combine estimates using macro data with estimates using micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These suggest that by the end of 2025 Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating steadily over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by 12% to 13%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts shows that these forecasts were relatively accurate in the short to medium term, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.

Notes:

November 2025.

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