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The Plausibility of Future Scenarios Conceptualising an Unexplored Criterion in Scenario Planning Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele
- Format:
- Book
- Thesis/Dissertation
- Author/Creator:
- Schmidt-Scheele, Ricarda <p>Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele, Universität Stuttgart, Deutschland</p>, Author.
- Series:
- Science Studies
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Scenario Planning.
- Scenarios.
- Foresight.
- Plausibility.
- Epistemology.
- Future Studies.
- Science.
- Society.
- Sociology of Science.
- Sociology of Technology.
- Environmental Sociology.
- Sustainability.
- Sociology.
- Local Subjects:
- Scenario Planning.
- Scenarios.
- Foresight.
- Plausibility.
- Epistemology.
- Future Studies.
- Science.
- Society.
- Sociology of Science.
- Sociology of Technology.
- Environmental Sociology.
- Sustainability.
- Sociology.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (262 pages)
- Edition:
- 1st ed.
- Other Title:
- Schmidt-Scheele, The Plausibility of Future Scenarios Conceptualising an Unexplored Criterion in Scenario Planning
- Place of Publication:
- Bielefeld transcript Verlag 2020
- Biography/History:
- Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele is a postdoctoral research associate at the Center for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies (ZIRIUS), University of Stuttgart. Her research areas are scenarios and foresight methods in the context of energy transformation and sustainability processes. She also works as a facilitator at the Oxford Scenarios Programme at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.
- Summary:
- What does plausibility mean in relation to scenario planning and how do users of scenarios assess it? Despite the concept's ubiquity, its epistemological and empirical foundations remain unexplored in previous research.Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele offers an interdisciplinary perspective: she presents approaches from philosophy of sciences, cognitive psychology, narrative theory and linguistics, and tests key hypotheses in an experimental study. A conceptual map lays out indicators for scenario plausibility and explains how assessments vary across scenario methods. This helps researchers and practitioners to better understand the implications of their methodological choices in scenario development.
- Contents:
- Frontmatter 1 Content 5 List of Figures 9 List of Tables 11 Summary of the book 13 1 Introduction 17 2 Scenario planning: characteristics and current issues 27 3 Scenario plausibility: emerging debates in research and practice 57 4 Conceptual explorations: plausibility across disciplines 73 5 Empirical research: Methodology to study scenario plausibility 117 6 Experimental study: quantitative research findings 137 7 Experimental study: qualitative research findings 171 8 Synthesis: A conceptual map of scenario plausibility 193 9 Conclusions and outlook 215 Abbreviations 225 Acknowledgments 227 References 229
- Notes:
- Doctoral Thesis Universität Stuttgart 2019
- ISBN:
- 9783839453193
- 3839453194
- OCLC:
- 1178642570
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